Thoughts on social media/metrics:
$pins reports monthly active users (MAU’s)- user logged on once in a month
$snap reports daily active users (DAU’s)- user logged on once a day
$twtr reports monetizable daily active users (mDAU’s)- user logged on once a day & able to see ads
Lowest bar is for $pins as u really have to be inactive to not log in for a month. At same time seeing MAU’s does little to provide insights into engagement so monetization can really vary even if users stay constant. Also why $pins doesnt disappoint as much as others on user #’s
$snap: better way of looking at the biz with DAU’s and why at timed they disappoint on metrics. Takes number of users who logged in every day in the q and divide by total number of days in the q. This metric can disappoint more often as engagement is more clear
$twtr: most restrictive metric of DAU’s that excludes ppl who dont see ads. $twtr has the most upside of user engagement leading to increase in users even with no additional app downloads bs a $pins where if app downloads are down then u know users are down as hard to lose users
To me $twtr is a reopen name as much conversation on platform revolves around live events & things happening thats most likely to happen if ppl are out. I expect more users this q from spaces, fleets, topics optimization, march madness happening & sports back
Arpu: $fb & $pins arpu are based on MAU’s which means their numbers are actually depressed and are higher if compared to $snap and $twtr. For reference $fb dau’s are equal to 2/3 of their $mau’s and arpu would be $15 globally vs $10 as listed
$snap arpu was 3.44 globally which is against $15 dau figure of $fb. This is interesting since looking at snap ud have thought they already close to fb’s $10 so maybe not much more room but no its comparable to $15 so over 4x larger vs ~3. (More room for snap)
$pins monetization looks like a joke by comparison as global arpu just 1.04 this q vs $fb $10 & likely $snap $5+ (guessing maus much higher than 280M daus). To me means huge room for improvement though suspect $pins daus are a fraction of $maus as doubt many log in each day...
$twtr is only one doesnt report arpu explicitly but take their 1.155B in advertising rev last q & dividing by their most restrictive mDAU metric u get $6 arpu compared to $15 for $fb & 3.44 $snap which is interesting since looks like twtr has better monetization than ppl think
Twitter to me has the highest upside of surprising on user metrics since higher engagement could lead to new reported mdau users even with no additional app downloads given their most restricted def. $pins has no upside like this for example.
Summary:
$fb is insane & cheap
$pins monetization & dau’s is crap but most room for improvement
$snap middle of pack
$twtr monetization better than u think & most room to surprise on user gains

$twtr my largest position. Own $fb may 21 calls heading into print tmrw & $pins stock
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