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DRAFT CAPITAL>>>LANDING SPOT...
ALL DAY
AND TWICE ON SUNDAY
A THREAD
ALL DAY
AND TWICE ON SUNDAY
A THREAD
The draft is a day away and I keep hearing things like this on the timeline
"Well WR X would be off my board if he gets drafted to the Ravens"
"RB X is a great BUT I really need to see a good landing spot with a solid O Line"
FADE THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AT ALL COSTS
"Well WR X would be off my board if he gets drafted to the Ravens"
"RB X is a great BUT I really need to see a good landing spot with a solid O Line"
FADE THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AT ALL COSTS
This is the NFL. Things change rapidly in a short span of time
Imagine I told you 18 months ago that TOM BRADY WON A SUPERBOWL WITH TAMPA FUCKING BAY
You'd say I was lying
Imagine I told you 18 months ago that TOM BRADY WON A SUPERBOWL WITH TAMPA FUCKING BAY
You'd say I was lying
Lets look at the case of Parris Campbell
In the 2019 NFL Draft Parris Campbell gets drafted in the 2nd round
The word on the twitter is he's going to be tethered to Andrew Luck for the next 5 years and be TY Hilton’s replacement
In the 2019 NFL Draft Parris Campbell gets drafted in the 2nd round
The word on the twitter is he's going to be tethered to Andrew Luck for the next 5 years and be TY Hilton’s replacement
Well,
Andrew Luck RETIRED literally 4 months later
Andrew Luck simply existing was enough to move Parris Campbell from the 2.05(WR7) in Pre Draft ADP to the 1.10(WR3) in Post Draft ADP
*Note: All ADP in this thread is Rookie Superflex and from @DLFootball
Andrew Luck RETIRED literally 4 months later
Andrew Luck simply existing was enough to move Parris Campbell from the 2.05(WR7) in Pre Draft ADP to the 1.10(WR3) in Post Draft ADP
*Note: All ADP in this thread is Rookie Superflex and from @DLFootball
Parris Campbell jumped from the WR7 to the WR3
He was drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft.
The guys he moved ahead of(Hollywood Brown, AJ Brown, Deebo, Etc) were all drafted in Rounds 1+2
This was not a Draft Capital ADP jump, but a LANDING SPOT ADP jump
He was drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft.
The guys he moved ahead of(Hollywood Brown, AJ Brown, Deebo, Etc) were all drafted in Rounds 1+2
This was not a Draft Capital ADP jump, but a LANDING SPOT ADP jump
Parris Campbell has scored 52.1 PPR Points during his 2-year career
Drafting him higher based on landing spot was a CLEAR MISTAKE
Drafting him higher based on landing spot was a CLEAR MISTAKE
Campbell Vaulted over stud AJ Brown in ADP, You ever heard of him?
In April SF Rookie Drafts he was going at the 1.04 as WR2 behind NKeal Harry
FELL ALL THE WAY TO THE 1.12 in June
In April SF Rookie Drafts he was going at the 1.04 as WR2 behind NKeal Harry
FELL ALL THE WAY TO THE 1.12 in June
Now how could that be?
Corey Davis was drafted 5th overall and heading into year 3
Davis had a 25% Target Share and still couldn't finish as a top 24 WR
How was AJ Brown gonna do it?
Mariota led run-oriented team ranking bottom 5 in pass attempts the 3 years prior
Corey Davis was drafted 5th overall and heading into year 3
Davis had a 25% Target Share and still couldn't finish as a top 24 WR
How was AJ Brown gonna do it?
Mariota led run-oriented team ranking bottom 5 in pass attempts the 3 years prior
Andddddddd
None of this mattered
AJ Brown has played 6/30 career games with Mariota
Corey Davis is gone
AJ Brown finished as WR6 in his 2nd season on a Titans team that finished bottom 5 in Pass Attempts
GOOD PLAYERS WIN REGARDLESS
None of this mattered
AJ Brown has played 6/30 career games with Mariota
Corey Davis is gone
AJ Brown finished as WR6 in his 2nd season on a Titans team that finished bottom 5 in Pass Attempts
GOOD PLAYERS WIN REGARDLESS
NOTE: none of the WRs that jumped AJ Brown in ADP were drafted ahead of him, his ADP movement wasn’t fueled by Draft Capital but instead landing spot
"But these are WRs. RBs are MUCH more landing spot dependent"
Bet
Lets look at last years RB Draft Class
Bet
Lets look at last years RB Draft Class
The Top 5 RBs in Pre Draft ADP were:
Tier 1:
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. DAndre Swift
Tier 2:
3. JK Dobbins
4. Cam Akers
Tier 3:
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
As we know, the draft happens and this list gets scrambled
Tier 1:
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. DAndre Swift
Tier 2:
3. JK Dobbins
4. Cam Akers
Tier 3:
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
As we know, the draft happens and this list gets scrambled
FIRST
you had CEH jump all the way to Tier 1 as RB2
Yes, he did get 1st round draft capital so he deserved a bump
BUT 32nd overall is barely a 1st round pick. JT and Swift were both selected in the next 9 picks
That shouldnt have been enough to move him ahead 2 Tiers...
you had CEH jump all the way to Tier 1 as RB2
Yes, he did get 1st round draft capital so he deserved a bump
BUT 32nd overall is barely a 1st round pick. JT and Swift were both selected in the next 9 picks
That shouldnt have been enough to move him ahead 2 Tiers...
It was Landing Spot that lifted him above Swift/Dobbins/Akers
He was going to be the next Kareem Hunt/Lesean Mccoy/Brian Westbrook in Andy Reid's scheme
AND he was dropped on a top 5 scoring offense with Patrick Mahomes
He was going to be the next Kareem Hunt/Lesean Mccoy/Brian Westbrook in Andy Reid's scheme
AND he was dropped on a top 5 scoring offense with Patrick Mahomes
On the opposite side of this spectrum we had DAndre Swift get relegated from RB2 to RB4, despite going literally 4 picks after CEH
This was because:
"Detroit is bad"
AND
Kerryon Johnson was perceived as good enough to give Swift problems
This was because:
"Detroit is bad"
AND
Kerryon Johnson was perceived as good enough to give Swift problems
*NOTE:
Moving Swift down and CEH up should've never happened
Not going to act like I'm perfect because I also did this, but NEVER AGAIN
Moving Swift down and CEH up should've never happened
Not going to act like I'm perfect because I also did this, but NEVER AGAIN
As we see here, ADP has corrected itself
Pre Draft ADP is the exact same as current ADP except that Dobbins and Akers flipped
Post Draft is further from current ADP despite having more information at that point.
Pre Draft ADP is the exact same as current ADP except that Dobbins and Akers flipped
Post Draft is further from current ADP despite having more information at that point.
TO BE CLEAR:
The main reason for this ADP error was Landing Spot NOT Draft Capital
The main reason for this ADP error was Landing Spot NOT Draft Capital
MOVING FORWARD
Talent>>Draft Capital>>>>>>>Landing Spot
Im going to be much more reliant on my Pre Draft Rookie Ranks and move things around based on Draft Capital
Talent>>Draft Capital>>>>>>>Landing Spot
Im going to be much more reliant on my Pre Draft Rookie Ranks and move things around based on Draft Capital
We have clear evidence Draft Capital matters(chart below by @pahowdy
This is a graph showing hit rates by round at RB and WR, clearly, the higher you're drafted, the higher chance you have of hitting
There is no tangible evidence surrounding landing spot, fade it all costs
This is a graph showing hit rates by round at RB and WR, clearly, the higher you're drafted, the higher chance you have of hitting
There is no tangible evidence surrounding landing spot, fade it all costs
CONC:
When Jamarr Chase lands on the Lions, Bateman lands on the Bears, and Terrace Marshall lands on the Ravens in round 1 I WILL NOT BUDGE
Leave Landing spot analysis for redraft, we play the long game, the NFL changes
When Jamarr Chase lands on the Lions, Bateman lands on the Bears, and Terrace Marshall lands on the Ravens in round 1 I WILL NOT BUDGE
Leave Landing spot analysis for redraft, we play the long game, the NFL changes
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