Read on Twitter
Slogging through the draft text of the Strategic Competition Act cosponsored by @SenatorMenendez & @SenatorRisch. https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1169/text?r=9&s=1
There">https://www.congress.gov/bill/117t... a lot of questionable & #39;findings& #39; at the outset, mixed in with some valid ones, but this one in particular caught my eye: 1/8
There">https://www.congress.gov/bill/117t... a lot of questionable & #39;findings& #39; at the outset, mixed in with some valid ones, but this one in particular caught my eye: 1/8
Though I could nitpick on a couple points and highlight some omitted relevant context, I basically agree with all of these points -- EXCEPT the first. Which is crucial, given that it is most directly relevant to US interests. 2/8
That is, I do not believe China& #39;s island building threatens freedom of navigation & the free flow of commerce.
IMO this is a meme in DC policy discourse with no evidentiary basis. The islands are far from key SLOCs & the land reclamation did not interfere with navigation. 3/8
IMO this is a meme in DC policy discourse with no evidentiary basis. The islands are far from key SLOCs & the land reclamation did not interfere with navigation. 3/8
China& #39;s enhanced presence on the islands could make a marginal contribution to a possible blockade strategy in a war over Taiwan, but that potential threat is tied more to China& #39;s general growth in military capability and not the island-building specifically or uniquely. 4/8
China shows no intent to & has no interest in interfering with the free flow of commerce in the SCS in peacetime. Yes, it has interfered with other countries& #39; fishing & oil/gas exploration/extraction in unfair ways. But this is not the same as violating freedom of navigation. 5/8
China also does not seek to exclude the navigation of foreign militaries (incl US forces) thru the SCS in peacetime. It objects to US FONOPs close to disputed features, but such FONOPs are not essential for navigational purposes, & they dilute/undermine the purpose of FONOPs. 6/8
Moreover, China& #39;s objections to US military exercises and even ISR in the South China Sea have grown less vociferous over time; the PRC govt increasingly avoids declaring such activities broadly illegal or impermissible, but rather just objects to their frequency & scope. 7/8
This isn& #39;t just splitting hairs; these are key distinctions from the perspective of US interests. The failure of Congress & DC discourse to get this right feeds threat inflation & prevents honest, clear-eyed discussions of the scope of & threats to US interests in the SCS. 8/8
