Yes, this counts as "We should have taken the other road to the airport", but it now appears that last year's curve was in fact the flattened curve, and this year's curve is what an unflattened curve looks like.

I am now appreciating the "horns of a dilemma" metaphor, given that India has managed to get impaled by both the horns, one after the other.

If you remember the flatten the curve graph, the flattened curve went on for longer, but resulted in the same number of cases as the unflattened curve. The unflattened curve ends quicker, but results in a higher number of deaths as the healthcare system collapses.

Not shown in the chart was the fact that the flattened curve lasts longer and results in economic pain, which, in a country like India, also results in death and devastation.

I find it interesting but understandable that not many are pointing out the current state of India to say "See? This proves that we needed last year's lockdown". Modi supporters won't do it because it's an implicit admission that he dropped the ball this year.

And opponents won't do it because it amounts to admitting that he took the right steps last year. And no one wants the lockdown to return. I too don't.

But as an academic exercise, when all this is over, the question should be studied - Did the brutal lockdown of 2020 stop what happened in 2021 from happening in 2020?

Also, another hypothesis worth considering - The total lockdown was the only kind of lockdown possible because India does not have the state capacity to enforce a nuanced lockdown.

P.S. I know that an important part of the argument for flattening the curve is that it gives us time to improve healthcare capacity. To the extent it wasn't done, it was a failure.