There could be a few surprises in Holyrood #SP21. Let’s look at Scottish North East & Tayside to examine how brexit could impact on SNP-Scottish Conservative marginals
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SNP has lost significant support among leave backing Scots

May 2016, seven weeks before the EU referendum had SNP support nearly as high with leave (44%) as with remain (45%) supporters
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However in the 2017 GE SNP support among leave backers collapsed and has never recovered.

Parts of the Scottish NE had some of the highest leave votes in Scotland (Moray 49.9%, Aberdeenshire 45%, Angus 44.7%, Fife 41.4%)
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So part of the explanation for the SNP 2017 GE disaster (where they lost scores of seats to the SCons) is definitely a loss of leave backing support.
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This loss of leave backers support continues to be a weakness for the SNP in certain ‘leavier’ areas of Scotland. Prof Sir John Curtice:

“Latest polls put support for the SNP at 55% among Remain voters but at just 29% among Leave supporters”
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There is a history of SNP-SCon switching in the Scottish NE...

2016 showed overall swings of -9.8% from SNP versus +13.5% for the Scottish Conservatives.

These were brutal swings from SNP to SCon back in SP16.
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The North-East was and I’d argue still is fertile ground for the SCons.

The 2016 swings were substantial and set the stage for the 2017 GE (where SCons won numerous NE seats from SNP on big swings)
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It is worth noting that even the SNP’s 2019 GE resurgence of support, they still haven’t recovered all they lost to SCons in NE region.

Indeed Moray, Banff & Buchan, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine all continue to be held by SCons at Westminster after 2019GE.
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So here’s a few NE & Tayside constituencies to watch out for on SP21

1. Aberdeenshire West
Tory held. But raising thin majority of 900. Alexander Burnett is fighting to retain it.

2016 saw SNP vote plummet here by 7% and SCon vote skyrocket by 17%.
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2. Aberdeen South and North Kincardine

SNP majority of 2,755. Maureen 20-Watt defending for the SNP. She must count as one of the least impressive MSPs in the history of Holyrood (judging by her woeful performance on the Salmond Inquiry Committee)
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3. Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Very thin SNP majority of just 1,422 here. 2016 saw SCon vote climb by 9.9% putting them in a very good second place. The SNP last time haemorrhaged 9.1% support, they cannot afford to lose any more this time round.
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4. Perthshire North

John Swinney’s own seat has a not huge 3,336 majority. If the SNP are having a bad night on the Tayside and NE, this might just become an interesting race. Murdo Fraser for SCons competing again, in 2016 he increased his party vote by a huge 12.5%.
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Sources:

Prof Sir John Curtice commentary ‘The Scottish Election: Next Episode in Brexit’
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-scottish-election-the-next-episode-in-brexit/

SP21 – What Happened to the SNP’s Majority in 2016?
https://ballotbox.scot/sp21-snp-lost-majority
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Scottish Election 2021: Have the parties lost their momentum?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56889344
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