I know that this won’t reach many #Falcons Fans, but with the Draft coming up in 2 days, I need to get this off… I already had a small rant 10 days ago about people talking the #Falcons into being close to contention and I will pick it up from there. 1/x https://twitter.com/nivoxsf/status/1383377353364049920

As I pointed out the 2022 Cap situation is already looking bad for ATL. Currently there are 20 Players under contract and the projected Cap by OTC is at 33m. Which translates to 1m Cap Hit per roster spot that needs to be filled. This is pre-signing of the 2021 Rookies. 2/x

The 9 Picks the Falcons currently have in 2021 add a cap hit around 16m. So we have 29 Players and 17m to sign 24 more. Ridley has an 11m 5th-year option coming up. Maybe TF will extend him and get a “cheap” 2022 into the contract, but Ridley isn’t part of the 29 Players. 3/x

Plus there is a 2022 Rookie Class that wants to be signed too. Foye is also not part of this. Add the 7 picks ATL currently has with a Cap Hit around 4m. That 17 roster spots with 13m Cap Space left. 4/x

To be even close to the playoffs, the 2020 & 2021 Draftpicks need to provide min average play and some players need to take a leap performance wise in new scheme & the 2022 Class needs to provide immediate impact. Why? Cause we aren't signing impact players via FA in 2022. 5/x

Could this performance leap happen? Yes. Is it realistic? No. Let’s assume a better performance just from the new schemes and coaching, which we can’t be sure about right now, the realistic outcome is maybe getting into the first playoff round in 2021. 6/x

“But the 2016 class” no… stop… one class had an immediate impact on the team’s performance. But what about 2017-2020… banking on a draft to be a hit with immediate impact. TF won't be a GM for too long with that approach. There is enough analysis & data to confirm this. 7/x

The #Falcons are not a generational player away from contending. Stop talking yourself into this. “But TF and AS said they want to be able to win now”... of course they are saying this… they are the new guys in town... 8/x

I don’t want to see the rage and rants if they came in and would start their tenure with “yeah this is a messy situation, we are going to lose a lot until 2023”... this is a business they need to sell themselves to the public. 9/x

With some moderate expectations towards the draft classes, the “real” team building for a deep playoff run and long term stability in results is starting earliest in 2023 and with a tidied up Salary Cap. This won’t happen with restructures and just delaying the problem. 10/x

Reality Check: Julio has no contract in 2023 and Matt will be 38 and in his last year of his current contract. Some more reality checks? More than 115m out of the projected 203m Cap in 2022 is used on 4 players as of today. 11/x

TF might have to say goodbye to Gray, Jones, Ryan or Jake to be able to field a full roster in 2022. It’s not because of performance or age. These are business decisions. As well as Ryan’s 2021 restructure, else there wouldn’t be cap for this year's roster. 12/x

TF is not commiting to Ryan. Ryan: 8m in Cap Space pre-June, nearly 24m post-June. Julio: 1m pre-June and 9,5m (cut) or 11,5m (trade) post-June. Jarrett: 16.5m + last year. Matthews 4m pre-June & 12.5m post-June. The only 4 players with impact salary moves available. 13/x

Restructures are an option, but looking at his first offseason TF doesnt want to jeopardize the future Cap to build a team now or else he would’ve just pulled the restructure trigger on Julio and Grady. He wants to reset the Salary Cap and make it healthy is my guess. 14/x

With Oluokun & Ridley 2 important players need new contracts for 2022 and beyond. There is no Salary Cap to create a team that will provide stable success beyond that year. There will be a lot of 1 year deals again. 2023 is where the real tenure of TF and AS starts. 15/x

If I, with my “hobby”-level Cap knowledge, can figure that out the Front Office knows this too. There is no drafting for immediate “win-now” impact. TF and his Front Office are looking to have a decent roster in 2021 and 2022 to be able to at least put up a fight every game, 16/x

but already today in 2021 the focus Imo has to be 2023 and beyond, because the 2021 and 2022 Salary Cap is a giant mess. 17/x

So ultimately the question that needs to be answered in 2021 is: do you want to build a team around a 38 year old QB in 2023 and try to go all the way in the following years (QB age 39, 40, most likely without Julio) or have a young QB you can build around long term. 18/x