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We recently saw a supply surplus of Luna that was driven by a big dividend. What happened ? The price was depressed for awhile as that supply got worked off in the market as the short term traders sold.
The reverse is also true, if a big supply shortage happens it’s likely the price would surge. This is still very likely to happen. It’s exciting and dopamine will be flowing across Luna Twitter but...
The effect will be the same but reversed. The price will shoot past reality, and then more supply will find its way into the market.
Crypto moves really fast. Not-crypto moves really slow. As a long term investor, I am most interested in the speed at which this bridge between the two is being built. From what I can tell, it’s the fastest I have ever seen but feels slow when checking prices 200x a day
1 billion Luna was the starting supply and a lot of it is going to get turned over - either burned to make UST or sold on exchanges. That’s the reality, best for all to accept it.
Compared to not-crypto equities, the decrease in equity due to buyback (burn) is insanely fast. This continues as long as people want to use Terra stable coins. And now it’s not just $UST with the Busan news.
The market cap of $LUNA is always going to be some larger multiple of the market cap of $UST and all the other stable coins issued because that’s the mechanism to create more stable coins.
The coming short term supply shortage is coming and the price is likely to go up faster than reality and more supply will find its way into the market and the price will come back down as speculators, traders, investors, and insiders exit.
Meanwhile, the bridge to reality will continue to be built while the outstanding equity is quietly being burned. Which is exactly the opposite way it happens with equities - growth happens while supply of equity increases. This is 
info and key to the whole long term idea.
info and key to the whole long term idea.
Be very conservative and make an estimation of what the market cap of just $UST could be in 5 years. Now estimate the amount of $LUNA burned over that time period. Now study the multiple of UST mCap:LUNA mCap...
As someone who wants to hold $LUNA for many years past the next $BTC halving, a lower price is better and that conflicts with my dopamine trader brain that wants it to go to $1000 RIGHT now.
Don’t be afraid if people want to sell their $LUNA if you are focused on the long term, the benefits of this selling will show themselves exponentially in 5 years if @d0h0k1 is able to deliver on his vision. Linear risk, exponential reward.
