Lithium ion battery prices <thread>

The way you will see governments and OEM’s position themselves well under $100/kwh is by using averages of all different chemistries

Since as long as I can remember, battery cell prices were always based on NCM chemistry...

The battery cell prices we have always collected at @benchmarkmin NCM chemistry - this is the standard.

The tend is below: a healthy drop since 2014 of ~15% compounded. But the rate of decrease slowing significantly since 2017 to now

https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/benchmark-analysis-lithium-ion-battery-cell-prices-close-in-on-100-kwh-come-of-ev-age-but-is-this-the-end-for-double-digit-declines/">https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membershi...

VW, Tesla et al will decrease the cost of battery cells to late $50/kwh, $60s and $70s by blending in the much cheaper LFP chemistry to make a “company wide average”

This of course isn’t innovation but clever marketing.

Real innovation needs all NCM chemistries, especially high nickel >811, and NCA to target $80-90/kwh long term.

With 70-80% of the cost of a lithium ion battery cell being raw materials today, this means *guaranteeing* a long term steady supply of low cost raw materials...

As @benchmarkmin’s @andyleyland1 explained here, without locking in long term supply and reasonable prices for lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and manganese, #EV makers / OEMs face major battery cost challenges https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/lithium-ion-battery-cell-prices-fall-to-110-kwh-but-raw-material-risk-looms-large-2/">https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membershi...

Until the last 8 months, LFP was never a part of the non China EV equation. It makes complete sense for a lower cost, lower range EV strategy for all automakers

But blending this naturally lower cost battery with the higher cost NCM / NCA isn’t innovation...

Innovation in dropping battery cell cost comes from real changes in:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen"> battery manufacturing (Gigafactory scale, new formats Tesla’s 4680)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">chemistry (to up energy density)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">raw material prices / contracts which we help with at @benchmarkmin https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/contact ">https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/contact&q...