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Short THREAD on Covid-19 Variants in ENGLAND:
The Sanger Institute has just released webpages that let you explore genomes that they sequences every week...
I had a look - two variants are currently growing "S Africa" and "India" but v small numbers. 1/7
The Sanger Institute has just released webpages that let you explore genomes that they sequences every week...
I had a look - two variants are currently growing "S Africa" and "India" but v small numbers. 1/7
This chart show the numbers of potentially worrying variants sequenced each week.
The recent rapid growth of the India variant (B1617) & the highish, steadier, numbers of S African variant (B1351) are clear (not great).
Brazil variant (P1) almost negligible (good!). 2/7
The recent rapid growth of the India variant (B1617) & the highish, steadier, numbers of S African variant (B1351) are clear (not great).
Brazil variant (P1) almost negligible (good!). 2/7
These are small numbers.
But S African & Indian variants are growing in the context of overall numbers going down. So the *proportion* of sequenced cases that are these two variants is going *up* - and for the Indian variant - going up A LOT.
Should we be worried? 3/7
But S African & Indian variants are growing in the context of overall numbers going down. So the *proportion* of sequenced cases that are these two variants is going *up* - and for the Indian variant - going up A LOT.
Should we be worried? 3/7
We know that we are sequencing all incoming traveller cases & we know from PHE report last week that most of the Indian variant cases so far are in travellers (~75%).
Nonetheless the growth is astonishingly steep. 4/7
Nonetheless the growth is astonishingly steep. 4/7
The worry is these cases might leak out into community.
Hopefully, the introduction of the red list will prevent this -> if so, we'll see the numbers that are Indian variant hopefully shrink *and* the next PHE report showing *almost all* cases in travellers. 5/7
Hopefully, the introduction of the red list will prevent this -> if so, we'll see the numbers that are Indian variant hopefully shrink *and* the next PHE report showing *almost all* cases in travellers. 5/7
The S. Africa variant (B1351) is more entrenched in the community - mainly London. The % of sequences that are B1351 has been growing fast.
Best case: increase a result of surge testing of S London cluster that has contained this outbreak.
Worse case: variant is spreading. 6/7
Best case: increase a result of surge testing of S London cluster that has contained this outbreak.
Worse case: variant is spreading. 6/7
So to sum up:
1) this is a great new resource! https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/
2) No need for panic stations just yet
3) But beware complacency. We need to keep an eye on these numbers even though still small.
I'll check back in a couple of weeks... /END
1) this is a great new resource! https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/
2) No need for panic stations just yet
3) But beware complacency. We need to keep an eye on these numbers even though still small.
I'll check back in a couple of weeks... /END
PS thank you to @theosanderson for tweeting about the web resource!
PPS it does make sense for traveller cases of Indian variant to increase as sharply and on similar timescale as cases have in India. But worry is people are meant to test negative just before travel!
