Thread by @SamWangPhD, News reports are saying the Census's reapportionment numbers are a gain for [...]

News reports are saying the Census& #39;s reapportionment numbers are a gain for Republicans, a loss for Democrats. A short thread on why this is not entirely true - and why the biggest uncertainties lie ahead, in redistricting.

The claim is that Biden states lost 3 seats net, and Trump states gained 3. But this does not nearly tell the whole story. Instead, one has to examine the redistricting landscape. Warning: nerdery ahead.
Gaining: MT, OR, CO, FL, TX (2), NC.
Losing: CA, MI, IL, OH, PA, WV, NY.

This is the smallest change in seats since 1920, when reapportionment failed entirely, thanks to rural representatives blocking the entire process in order to avoid losing power. The next-closest was 1940, when 9 seats changed. So 7 seats is not a a lot. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/apportionment-data-text.html">https://www.census.gov/data/tabl...

Historical Apportionment Data (1910-2020)

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/apportionment-data-text.html

First, the losses.

California and West Virginia each lose a seat. They will probably eliminate a Democratic and Republican seat, respectively. Net change: zero.

Two states that lose 1 seat each already have strongly partisan delegations: Illinois (13 D, 5 R) and Ohio (12 R, 4 D). So lopsided that the majority will probably lose a seat. Net change: zero.

(OH has Fair Districting laws, which will also influence the outcome. Important!)

PA is far more likely to be 9 D, 8 R than 9 R, 8 D. Minus one for Democrats.

NY loses a seat, but Democrats are in charge of line-drawing. Minus one for Republicans.

Net change: zero.

(Pennsylvania& #39;s Congressional delegation is currently 9 R, 9 D. It& #39;s a famously 50-50 state, and redistricting is done by statute - and is bipartisan this year. Given the geography of Pennsylvania, it& #39;s hard to imagine eliminating a Republican seat.)

Michigan: hard to predict. An independent redistricting commission will undo the 2012 gerrymander. It& #39;s not clear what the next change will be - I will score this as a net change of zero.

However, note that citizen input is critical here. Get involved! https://www.michigan.gov/micrc ">https://www.michigan.gov/micrc&quo...

OK, so the net change from lost seats is zero for either party. Some uncertainties - but they are under the control of citizen input. So the real action item is: get involved locally! Report your communities of interest!

A place to start: http://Representable.org"> http://Representable.org

Now, the states that gained seats.

Again, they are
Montana
Oregon
Colorado
North Carolina
Florida
Texas (2)

Colorado& #39;s Congressional delegation is 4 Democrats, 3 Republicans. In November, Biden defeated Trump by 13.5 points. An independent commission will probably add a seat that ends up Democratic.

But this will be dependent on citizen input. Get involved! https://redistricting.colorado.gov/ ">https://redistricting.colorado.gov/">...

Oregon& #39;s delegation is 4 Democrats, 1 Republican. The Democratic majority gave Republicans a seat at the table, in order to get them to stop blocking legislation. The added seat will probably tilt Republican.

So Colorado+Oregon, no net change (but better representation in both!)

Montana adds a seat. The redistricting commission there is bipartisan, with a nonpartisan chair. I would expect the western and eastern parts of the state to comprise the two districts. The westernmost district might be a swing district, winnable by either party. Net change: zero

OK, now we get to Texas, which gains two seats.

Oh, Texas, Texas.

This could be 2 seats for Republicans, or no net change. It& #39;s going to depend on details, and depends a lot on existing districting and political trends. A few points...

Texas& #39;s delegation is currently 23 Republicans, 13 Democrats. The GOP is already cutting it close: in 2020, six Republican members won with <53% of the vote. The state is trending Democratic: Biden 2020 gained over Clinton 2016 by 3 points, more than any other state.

So Texas legislators and Governor Abbott, all Republicans, could draw two new GOP districts - but over the span of a decade, that could backfire on them. That seems like a risky move.

It would be more prudent to draw 1 D, 1 R district.

What will they do? ...

Well, partisanship isn& #39;t the only factor. Communities matter - as does racial fairness. Hispanic voters in Texas are at multiple points on the political spectrum. I would say it& #39;s complicated - and citizens should weigh in - especially in greater Houston, growing so fast.

In addition, there is a serious issue with undercounting of Hispanics in this Census. The states that underperformed relative to July 2020 population estimates included Texas, Florida, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada - all Hispanic-rich states. A real risk of poor representation.

The way to address this is through citizen input. Again, tools like @Representable_, @davesredist, @DistrictBuilder, and @gerrymandr DistrictR can make citizen input far more effective. Look for one of them and use to document your community! http://Representable.org"> http://Representable.org

Finally, we come to Florida. Florida only gained one seat, short of the predicted two seats.

(Again, this may be because of the Hispanic undercount. That& #39;s an interesting story for another thread.)

But the big question mark in Florida is single-party control of redistricting.

Surely the Florida legislature and governor will seek to obtain partisan advantage. Florida& #39;s Fair Districts laws offer a defense. The state Supreme Court is all-Republican. so any argument would have to focus on competition, and not just a purely partisan claim.

North Carolina also gains a seat. Now there is an issue. Redistricting is under single-party control NC Republicans will probably to repeat their tactic of drawing a gerrymander, as they did in 2012. That was heavily litigated, and overturned in state court...

But the state court is different now. 4 Republicans, 3 Democrats. And the new Chief Justice has strong ideological views. At a minimum, this will be contentious.

Rapid citizen input could make a difference here. Strong media and public attention could moderate the outcome.

But let& #39;s say it& #39;s +1 seat for Republicans...with a lot of upside potential if they can pull off a partisan map.

Bottom line: Republicans seem likely to get a net advantage from redistricting. But it& #39;s mainly because of single-party redistricting in states like Florida and North Carolina - not b/c of reapportionment.

It comes down to redistricting, citizen input, and effective reforms.

To learn more about redistricting, check out our
@princetongerry site: http://gerrymander.princeton.edu"> http://gerrymander.princeton.edu

Also, our team is ready to help you in your state. Get in touch!

/end

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Princeton Gerrymandering Project

http://gerrymander.princeton.edu

P.S. Overall, the Census did not undercount people. Compared with state-by-state estimates from July 2020, the median result was 0.7% higher. Impressive net result.

That said, we have to be alert for more detailed evidence of Hispanic undercounts. Essential.

Correction: I meant that Pennsylvania is likely to become 9 Republican, 8 Democratic seats rather than the other way around. https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1387071686248263681">https://twitter.com/SamWangPh...

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1387071686248263681

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