#COVID19India

DL:
Cases and tests both show negative growth till mid-Feb. Testing continues to decline while case counts start rising again.
Testing increases mildly to ~ 10% WoW when weekly increases in cases threaten to cross 50%.
Cases start doubling in a week ... +
DL (contd):
... and, strangely, tests decline the week after with proportional decline in cases. Testing rises by 20% thereafter and case counts cross 150% WoW.
Test growth declines again and so do cases. Test growth goes negative with case growth dropping to 50%. TPR keeps ⏫
+
UP: Testing reduces mildly while cases keep declining till the 3rd week of Feb.
Cases start rising while testing declines for a further 3 weeks. Testing rises for two weeks thereafter with ~ 20%, 15% WoW when cases have already doubled in a week.
Tests stay the same...+
UP (contd):
... as cases threaten to triple in a week. Testing rises by 30-40% when case counts go up 240% WoW.
Growth declines the week after, case growth also drops. No change in testing levels from the week before and case growth declines to 50%. TPR ⏫
"No tests, no cases"
+
KL: Early Feb sees a spurt in testing which starts driving down case growth for the next 5 weeks, accompanied by mild declines in tests.
Case decline stops and counts starts increasing by the last week of March. First week of April sees a 25% growth in cases.
+
KL (contd):

The next week cases rise by 75% while testing grows 20%. Week after sees testing grow by 30% and cases by 125%.
Testing finally ramps up by 50% and case growth declines mildly. TPR remains ⏫.

That one week delay - has led to this going out of hand.
+
MH: Cases keep declining till early Feb.
Seond week of Feb sees 12-15% rise in cases with mild decline in tests. Next week sees case growth go past 65% while tests rise by 20%. Testing increases by 30% the week after, bringing case growth down to 25%.
Declines in both tests...+
MH (contd):
and cases in the first week of March.

Cases rise by ~ 50% and then 70% over two weeks, while testing starts growing again and maintains 25% ramp up for the next 4 weeks.

TPR stabilizes/levels out, although at very high. Case growth continues to decline ...
+
Test growth crosses case growth in the third week of April.

Cases decline further in the week after, with minimal test growth. TPR remains level. Lockdown declared in the middle of the 4-week ramp up.

It's clear that the target for testing growth here is stabilizing the TPR.
+
Testing has to ⏫ till TPR stabilizes and cases decline/growth starts reducing >> Containment.

You should be able to work out what happened in the rest of the major Indian states and decide if what the state administrations did was enough or appropriate.

AP, AS, BR, CH
+
CT, GA, GJ, HR
+
HP, JK, JH, KA
+
MP, OR, PB, RJ
+
TN, TG, UP, UT
+
WB + India Aggregate.
You can follow @UntergrundmannG.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: