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Experts. Remember them?
As there’s been so little discussion on what happens at the
border if Scotland left the UK, we’ve asked four experts for their views. Thread..
As there’s been so little discussion on what happens at the
border if Scotland left the UK, we’ve asked four experts for their views. Thread..
These experts have published more on the border recently than the relevant governments and political parties put together.
Dr Kirsty Hughes, EU Politics
Dr Thomas Sampson, International Trade
Jess Sargeant, Brexit
Prof Katy Hayward, Irish Border
border recently than the relevant governments and political parties put together. Dr Kirsty Hughes, EU PoliticsDr Thomas Sampson, International TradeJess Sargeant, BrexitProf Katy Hayward, Irish Border
Political debate in the Scottish elections has been more focused on a referendum than independence itself.
Is it relevant to be discussing theborder now?
Is it relevant to be discussing the
border now?
@thom_sampson: ‘Absolutely. One of the things that voters are going to have to bear in mind when thinking about an independence referendum is that how they vote will affect the future of this border.’
@KirstyS_Hughes: ‘Now if an independent Scotland rejoined the EU there would be an EU border between Scotland and England. So it’s a very big difference and I’m disappointed it’s not been discussed more in this campaign.’
If Scotland were to leave the UK, what might a border with England look like?
@Jess_Sargeant: ‘If Scotland rejoined the EU what would happen is the border between Scotland and England would essentially become the EU’s external border.’
Prof Katy Hayward: ‘At the main crossing points that are designated entry-exit points between & you would expect to see in the first instance customs posts.’
& you would expect to see in the first instance customs posts.’
Dr Thomas Sampson: ‘You would need to have customs officials stationed here. It means more buildings. It means the ability if necessary to close the border.’
Is it plausible that Scotland itself would put up no barriers to cross-border trade?
trade?
Dr Kirsty Hughes: ‘No. It’s not plausible because if Scotland is an 
member state then it has to apply the common EU trade policy.’
member state then it has to apply the common EU trade policy.’
Prof Katy Hayward: ‘The EU would be absolutely strict on the need for checks and controls at the Anglo-Scottish border.’
Dr Kirsty Hughes: ‘It’s not the Berlin Wall. It’s just something that’s going to add frictions to trade.’
All four experts think frictionless trade would not be possible across the border if Scotland became an EU member state.
On the other hand, they say, Scotland would gain frictionless trade with the EU.
border if Scotland became an EU member state. On the other hand, they say, Scotland would gain frictionless trade with the EU.
All four experts think an independent Scotland could learn from Brexit, not least avoiding unnecessary cliff edges along the way.
@thom_sampson: ‘One of the difficulties with Brexit was the deal was signed 8 days before it was implemented. There’s no need to do that again.’
@thom_sampson: ‘One of the difficulties with Brexit was the deal was signed 8 days before it was implemented. There’s no need to do that again.’
The figures aren’t perfect but ( @scotgov’s own) analysis suggests Scotland exports 
times more to 
than .
times more to than .
What are the potential costs of a border with England if Scotland became independent?
Dr Thomas Sampson: ‘My research finds that independence would be around two to three times more costly for the Scottish economy than Brexit, reducing Scotland’s income per capita by somewhere between six and nine percent.’
Dr Sampson: ‘And that’s coming from the additional cost of trading across the border, higher prices and fewer opportunities for exporting.’
@Jess_Sargeant: ‘There would certainly be new costs to businesses. They would need to pay customs brokers to comply with this new paperwork.’
What are the potential benefits of a border if Scotland joins the EU?
@Jess_Sargeant: ‘The benefit would be that it would remove the border between Scotland and the rest of the EU.’
border if Scotland joins the EU? @Jess_Sargeant: ‘The benefit would be that it would remove the border between Scotland and the rest of the EU.’
@Jess_Sargeant: ‘Some of the problems that have been introduced because of Brexit, for example in the Scottish seafood sector, would be mitigated if an independent Scotland decided to rejoin the EU.’
@hayward_katy: ‘For Scotland, if it was to become independent and to become part of the EU, it would be part of that much wider market of the European Union.’
Dr Kirsty Hughes: ‘There’s definitely a win-win for an independent Scotland on migration and the movement of people.’
@KirstyS_Hughes: ‘If Scotland stayed in the 
Common Travel Area then people in both directions would be able to live, work and travel freely between England, Wales, NI & Scotland. But we’d have free movement again with the rest of the EU.’
Common Travel Area then people in both directions would be able to live, work and travel freely between England, Wales, NI & Scotland. But we’d have free movement again with the rest of the EU.’
If there’s interest (and I have time) I’ll update this thread with additional expert insight from these specialists.
There’s way more to be said about the border. But given the lack of discussion so far hopefully this is at least a start.
There’s way more to be said about the border. But given the lack of discussion so far hopefully this is at least a start.
Above all these borderlands are stonkingly beautiful so big thanks to a fantastic team for the pictures and production to do them justice @JoshHo_ @luciajwalker @EoinOGradyPhoto
Watch: Full report on the border
border
Further reading: @Jess_Sargeant & @instituteforgov https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/scottish-independence-eu-border
Further reading: @thom_sampson & @CEP_LSE https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/abstract.asp?index=7714
