Exploring the Balance of Power. A thread.

The Balance of Power is a system of maintaining peace created by the existence of three major powers that enforce control and stop things falling into chaos.

These are

1. The Navy
2. The 4 Emperors
3. The 7 Warlords.

Throughout history, these three major powers have maintained relative peace across the world.

But what makes them a balance?

This statement from Garp tells us that the alliance between the Navy and the privateers called the Shichibukai, exists to keep the 4 emperors in check.

A common misunderstanding about this statement is that it is not supposed to mean that the Navy & the 7 Warlords together are a match for all 4 emperors at once.

We learn later, that the threat of just two legends at once is considered hugely problematic to the Navy.

Marineford also demonstrates to us that while the Navy and the Shichibukai together, are almost certainly superior to a singular emperor and their crew. The prospect of fighting two at once or even in a row is something only the blood thirsty want to attempt.

Instant forfeit.

This tells us that the 'Balance of Power' can be defined as a 5-Way tie breaker between the Navy & the 7 Warlords against each of the 4 emperors individually, rather than as a collective.

The other reason that this balance is maintained is that a stalemate exists between the 4 emperors. For any of them to invade and destroy any of the others, runs the risk of too much too lose and not enough to gain under normal circumstances.

This brings us to the interesting point that is often overlooked. Circumstances are not currently normal.

One of the balancing powers has already fallen. The 7 warlords!

To understand why this is significant and how it happened, we have to understand some hidden context. This scene from Thriller Bark actually foreshadowed that this would happen.

Kuma was ordered to cover up the defeat of Moria, just like Crocodiles was.

Kuma is told that it's not good for another Shichibukai to be defeated and that such a thing cannot be found out or made public, otherwise they will cause too much embarrassment and have to be discontinued.

This of course, connects to Fujitora making Doflamingo's defeat public.

Luffy is largely responsible for the collapse of the Shichibukai system. Saving Alabasta and Dressrosa had a huge impact on the likelihood of this being voted for at the Reverie.

Fujitora then helped to make it happen.

The roles of Blackbeard and Law are often overlooked in this. Blackbeard perhaps brought the biggest and most public disgrace to the warlords and then Law similarly used it for his own means.

Law undermined their legitimacy by his own actions and having Doflamingo 'resign'

In Law's own words. He states that after Marineford, the balance did not really fall at all. It only shifted. As if everyone was making preparations.

By destroying the SAD factory and destabilising Doflamingo. He 'broke the gears' that were holding the balance of power steady.

After Whitebeard's death. Things were shaken up a bit but no one made any big moves. Everyone just seemed to allow Blackbeard to take Whitebeard's place, while they took pieces of his territory, like Fishman Island.

The only moves that Kaido and Big Mom made were to either try and get involved in the conflict or simply to claim territory.

Shanks seemed to act to prevent the worst outcomes of both these things and his motive seemed to be ensuring the balance of power was maintained.

For more on that, check out this thread analysing the geography and significance of Shanks' actions. https://twitter.com/TypicalJAnt/status/1381252874060042242?s=20

So the balance of power was maintained after Marineford but it was on a knife's edge. The actions of Luffy pretimeskip had done a lot to delegitimise the 7 warlords but his actions until Dressrosa had been covered up for the most part.

Dressrosa is the pivotal moment for the downfall of the 7 warlord system and it comes about largely because of Law's actions as much as it does Luffy actually defeating Doflamingo. Fujitora then makes it public and this starts the downfall that comes at the Reverie.

This brings us back to the point that under normal circumstances, none of the 4 emperors would either likely attack each other or ally with each other.

With the warlords abolished. These circumstances no longer exist. The balance is already broken.

This has always been one of the greatest fears of the World Government. The Gorosei stated that the balance could not possibly been maintained forever and that this would mean a 'Great Cleansing' is necessary.

Remember that the balancing factor of the Navy vs each of the 4 Emperors, was the addition of the 7 warlords. Without them, it's hard to imagine how they could best just one yonko. Two seems unfathomable.

The Navy and the World Government are now relying on the 'SSG' to replace the 7 warlords, whatever that may be.

This theory may be of interest but that's a side note. https://twitter.com/TypicalJAnt/status/1384935910337400832?s=20

Whatever the SSG is. It must be formidable to be a fitting replacement for warlords.

So we know that the balance of power can be maintained after the death of just one Emperor and that it's in the interest of the Navy to compensate the lose of the warlords.

This tells us that both pirates and marines want the balance of power but for opposite reasons.

It's important to note that depending on what factors of the balancing power are displaced, this is actually hugely favourable to either side. The Navy's lose of the warlords is desirable for the emperors and the fall of emperors is desirable for the Navy and World Government.

This is why the Navy were hoping that Big Mom and Kaido would simply take each other out. Their alliance creates a huge problem for them that must be immediately dealt with.

But they said they won't act.

The Navy are stretched for resources because they are currently going after their former allies, the warlords, who are now deemed criminals.

It's worth remembering though. The Navy are just the outward face of the World Government.

The Navy not being able to act ≠ they can't.

Once again entering theory territory for a bit. This opens up the possibility that the World Government will in fact have a say in how things go in Wano.

Their motive is first of all to ensure that Big Mom and Kaido alliance doesn't last.

Better yet if they can be taken down!

Staying in theory land for a moment longer. This opens up the consideration of why Wano's borders were closed and what might happen if they are opened.

This event seems very tied to the collapse of the balance of power.

Going back to established facts. We know at least that Wano is an isolated country and that it was been for perhaps even as long as since the Void Century. Why this is or was, is still a mystery.

It's also interesting that because of this isolation, Wano was not under the WG.

This theory may be of interest to some in exploring how this might all come into play with the remainder of Wano.

It amounts to CP0 taking out or capturing both Kaido and Big Mom! https://twitter.com/TypicalJAnt/status/1386612539262447619?s=20

We have established that if just one emperor falls, they can be replaced and the balance maintained. However, if two were to fall. This would be catastrophic!

One balancing power is already gone. If another falls, then there will only be one left!

The World Government!

Tying this back to the subject of Wano's borders. It opens up the possibility that the raid will succeed and the borders will be opened but this will not be achieved by Luffy. Instead it will be achieved by the World Government.

To conclude. One balancing power is already gone and a second is at it's tipping point. Soon, it is very possible that only one will remain.

This would be a very fitting end to the yonko saga and start to the final saga.

'Great Cleansing' & The Revolution may be coming soon!