An open-ended thread on what we know so far:
Natural gas is currently responsible for 22% of global CO2 emissions from energy, but is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel.
But in IPCC 1.5C scenarios with low-to-moderate BECCS and low overshoot, gas demand falls 20-25% by 2030 on current levels - and up to 74% by 2050.
Emissions pledges will shape gas demand, but this is not always explicit.
The US is the world’s largest producer *and* consumer of natural gas, and continued growth was projected.
This will put the squeeze on gas: it can’t be done through coal phaseout alone.
But I haven’t seen a good analysis yet of what the new target means for overall gas demand (hit me up in the replies if you have!)
The new US pledge for a zero carbon power system by 2035 means the bulk of that demand will disappear within 15 years. (Some residual gas demand for CCUS, tbc).
The new 2030 55% GHG target enshrined in the EU climate law will imply a reduction in gas demand of around 36%, according to European Commission modelling.
According to @theCCCuk models, this means reducing overall UK gas demand by 49% on current levels by 2035 - even with CCS.
Shifting away from coal will do the heaviest lifting, but the acceleration of renewables will limit space for new gas.
Yet Putin was one of the few leaders to mention methane emissions. Is Russia starting to feel pressure on the environmental impact of its oil and gas production?
But meeting China's net zero 2060 target means full power decarbonisation by 2050- within the lifetime of new gas infrastructure.
China will have to clean up its entire power sector by 2050 if the world is to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C – meaning its carbon emissions must peak much...https://www.newscientist.com/article/2275172-china-must-act-fast-to-avoid-breaching-the-worlds-1-5c-climate-goal/
Australia's number-wangling was embarrassing
South Korea and South Africa are still working on their targets
India remained enigmatic
... so I haven't done the numbers on those countries yet.
The US was previously a funder of gas expansion across the world, recently including $5bn for the ill-fated Mozambique LNG project.
It is now "ending official international finance for carbon-intensive fossil fuel"
This is a clear signal the United States will move away from financing coal, oil and gas projects overseas. Now is the time to make sure the details deliver on that necessary drive to urgently shift...https://www.nrdc.org/experts/han-chen/us-climate-finance-plan-restricts-fossil-fuel-finance
7 European countries also committed to aligning export credit with finance commitments, although their timelines still need work
During a virtual meeting on April 14th, under the chairmanship of Bruno Le Maire, French Minister for Economy, Finance and Recovery, governments of Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain,...https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/2021/04/14/seven-countries-launch-international-coalition-export-finance-for-future-e3f-to-align-export-finance-with-climate-objectives
Expect them to come under pressure for their oil and gas financing next.
Together they represent 38% of global gas output - but it's still not clear what the initiative will entail.
Let me know in the replies if you know of other useful analysis.
But if the pledges are in fact met or exceeded, many gas industry players could face a hard landing.