The collapse of Liberia triggered the collapse of Sierra Leone and led to a madcap 1990s. I’m not going to pretend that Nigeria has a remote chance of stepping from the brink, Cotonou and Lomé are two capitals ruled by disconnected elites with no plans.

2/ Already both face strains in their north due to the chaos in Eastern Burkina Faso, with violent incursions in the past year to Benin already. Refugee outflow and heightened violence in Nigeria will bleed over and overwhelm already weak states. /2

In the case of Togo this is likely to energize already restive youth + opposition protestors who would relish nothing more than ending the 50+ year Eyadema dynasty. Mad spirits can tend to overwhelm regions and shift “stable” situations. Now we turn to Ghana. /3

Ghana cannot remain an island of peace in a region aflame, especially not if it’s biggest trading partner gets more unstable. Ghana also has a bit of an Anti Nigerian xenophobic streak, as more Nigerian professionals stream in, along with refugees, it will heighten tensions. /4

If West Africa was a token, my advice would be to sell it rapidly, maybe the 2030s will treat it better. But it is clear that things are falling apart, and we are no longer at ease. /5