THREAD: I had some time today (thx to #PaidSickDays, which everyone should have) so had a look at the new open data release on #ottbike theft. Bottom line: OPS is not ending bike theft but is working hard to convince us that it's doing well and that we really need them. 1/ https://twitter.com/cbcotttraffic/status/1386677730347999233

OPS is pretty bad at recovering stolen bikes. Of the 6,350 bikes reported stolen between 2015 and 2020, fewer than 300 (4.5%) have been "recovered" (meaning that they are found, after having been previously reported stolen). 2/

The recovery rate has not really improved over time: it was around 5% in 2015/2016, dipping to 3% in 2017/2018 before inching back up to the 5% range in 2019/2020. OPS has never recovered more than 57 bikes in a single year (out of the ~1k reported stolen). 3/

OPS told @CityNewsOttawa this week that "the percentage of bicycles recovered is rising," which is technically true, if you conveniently forget 2015-2016, look only at the % and not the #. Not great results for an org whose budget has gone up by ~4% every year in this period. 4/

There is also no real trend in the number of REPORTED thefts over time. Despite everyone and their dog getting a bike during the pandemic, the number of reported #ottbike thefts was 16% lower in 2020 than in 2019. OPS really tried hard to convince us otherwise, though. 5/

OPS has done a lot to tie its bike theft "successes" to work done by the new Centretown NRT ( https://globalnews.ca/news/7451924/ottawa-police-bikes-recovered-catherine/) & canine units ( https://ottawacitizen.com/news/e-bike-theft-busted-by-front-line-police-canine-units), effectively using the media to manufacture consent amongst #ottbike for more policing. 6/

In July 2020, OPS warned of a “sharp rise in bicycle thefts from sheds, garages and the storage areas of residential buildings” due to COVID. Sure, going from 33 to 69 B&Es is a jump, but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to regular thefts, which, again, were down. 7/

BTW, the Glebe is really the only neighbourhood that saw a notable increase in reported bike theft B&Es, but somehow I think they will be... fine. 8/

Overall, Centretown wins with 20% of reported thefts, but there was a big drop in numbers last year (certainly due to lack of DT office workers). There are 108 hoods but some seem underrepresented in the overall stats-- this could point to who is more willing to report. 9/

I was interested in whether the reported value of the bike impacts the likelihood of return. From what I can tell, it doesn't. Bikes valued at <$100 had the same recovery rate as bikes in the $1-2k range (still just 4.5%). 10/

Overall, OPS has recovered/found about $200k worth of bikes over 6 years ($33k/y). It's not nothing, but it's also not a lot considering the financial ($358M in 2020) and social costs (NRTs, increased surveillance, harassment & violence against marginalized groups, etc.) 11/

Final thought: Whenever OPS catches heat for doing sth evil (Montsion acquittal, ambush arrests of BLM/Indig protesters), we get some media copaganda about bike theft right after. It's so cynical & we should stop letting ourselves be played like this-it's just not worth it. 12/12