Read on Twitter
1/H
There was a recent effort to champion Nate Silver ( @NateSilver538) as a non-expert who speaks uncomfortable truths experts don& #39;t want to hear.
That& #39;s misguided, as we can see by examining how many SARS-CoV-2-infected get hospitalized.
https://twitter.com/LajXtra/status/1383948036905127946">https://twitter.com/LajXtra/s...
There was a recent effort to champion Nate Silver ( @NateSilver538) as a non-expert who speaks uncomfortable truths experts don& #39;t want to hear.
That& #39;s misguided, as we can see by examining how many SARS-CoV-2-infected get hospitalized.
https://twitter.com/LajXtra/status/1383948036905127946">https://twitter.com/LajXtra/s...
2/H
Some context:
Infection fatality rate, or IFR, is the proportion of people infected with the virus SARS-CoV-2 who die of the disease COVID-19.
Infection hospitalization rate, or IHR, is like IFR, but with COVID-19 hospitalizations instead of deaths
https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html">https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-publ...
Some context:
Infection fatality rate, or IFR, is the proportion of people infected with the virus SARS-CoV-2 who die of the disease COVID-19.
Infection hospitalization rate, or IHR, is like IFR, but with COVID-19 hospitalizations instead of deaths
https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html">https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-publ...
3/H
Seroprevalence studies measure antibody levels to estimate the number of infected people.
Dividing COVID-19 hospitalizations by that number of infected people gives a seroprevalence-based IHR.
IHR is good to know.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1386751496390336518
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa... href=" https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1341185258964836353">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
Seroprevalence studies measure antibody levels to estimate the number of infected people.
Dividing COVID-19 hospitalizations by that number of infected people gives a seroprevalence-based IHR.
IHR is good to know.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1386751496390336518
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa..." title="3/HSeroprevalence studies measure antibody levels to estimate the number of infected people. Dividing COVID-19 hospitalizations by that number of infected people gives a seroprevalence-based IHR.IHR is good to know. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa... href=" https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1341185258964836353">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
4/H
Neil Ferguson& #39;s team at Imperial College gave IFR + IHR estimates for Great Britain (GB) and the USA in March 2020.
Their IFR estimates held up well for the mitigated pandemic that actually occurred.
Their IHR was ~4.4%.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1353875481880354825
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa... href=" https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/14/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf"> https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/14/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf
Neil Ferguson& #39;s team at Imperial College gave IFR + IHR estimates for Great Britain (GB) and the USA in March 2020.
Their IFR estimates held up well for the mitigated pandemic that actually occurred.
Their IHR was ~4.4%.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1353875481880354825
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/14/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf" title="4/HNeil Ferguson& #39;s team at Imperial College gave IFR + IHR estimates for Great Britain (GB) and the USA in March 2020.Their IFR estimates held up well for the mitigated pandemic that actually occurred.Their IHR was ~4.4%. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa... href=" https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/14/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf"> https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/14/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
5/H
This is where Nate Silver objects.
He claims IHR was more like ~2%, and so Ferguson et al.& #39;s ~4.4% value was an over-estimate.
He& #39;s been saying this for about a year or more, despite people repeatedly explaining he& #39;s wrong.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255500333922635782
https://twitter.com/NateSilve... href=" https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1312501274877726722">https://twitter.com/NateSilve...
This is where Nate Silver objects.
He claims IHR was more like ~2%, and so Ferguson et al.& #39;s ~4.4% value was an over-estimate.
He& #39;s been saying this for about a year or more, despite people repeatedly explaining he& #39;s wrong.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255500333922635782
https://twitter.com/NateSilve..." title="5/HThis is where Nate Silver objects. He claims IHR was more like ~2%, and so Ferguson et al.& #39;s ~4.4% value was an over-estimate.He& #39;s been saying this for about a year or more, despite people repeatedly explaining he& #39;s wrong. https://twitter.com/NateSilve... href=" https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1312501274877726722">https://twitter.com/NateSilve..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
6/H
Silver recently brought up this up again, after experts correctly criticized his non-expert + uninformed claims on vaccine policy / communication.
So he may have thought pointing out experts being wrong might help him.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1383871962758344709
https://twitter.com/NateSilve... href=" https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1382371294109392910">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
Silver recently brought up this up again, after experts correctly criticized his non-expert + uninformed claims on vaccine policy / communication.
So he may have thought pointing out experts being wrong might help him.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1383871962758344709
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa..." title="6/H Silver recently brought up this up again, after experts correctly criticized his non-expert + uninformed claims on vaccine policy / communication.So he may have thought pointing out experts being wrong might help him. https://twitter.com/NateSilve... href=" https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1382371294109392910">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
7/H
With that background out of the way, it might help to assess how Silver& #39;s claims held up in comparison to experts like Ferguson et al.
Well, the CDC& #39;s most recent IHR is ~4.9%. So not a good start for Silver.
https://twitter.com/Balgor11/status/1386434734696255489
https://twitter.com/Balgor11/... href=" http://web.archive.org/web/20210425213134/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html">https://web.archive.org/web/20210...
With that background out of the way, it might help to assess how Silver& #39;s claims held up in comparison to experts like Ferguson et al.
Well, the CDC& #39;s most recent IHR is ~4.9%. So not a good start for Silver.
https://twitter.com/Balgor11/status/1386434734696255489
https://web.archive.org/web/20210..." title="7/HWith that background out of the way, it might help to assess how Silver& #39;s claims held up in comparison to experts like Ferguson et al.Well, the CDC& #39;s most recent IHR is ~4.9%. So not a good start for Silver. https://twitter.com/Balgor11/... href=" http://web.archive.org/web/20210425213134/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html">https://web.archive.org/web/20210..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
8/H
IHR is higher for nursing home residents, consistent with higher IFR for nursing home residents + older people due to more severe infections.
So IHR can be higher in older populations + lower elsewhere
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7493765/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic... href=" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.20.20178533v1.full-text
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/1... href=" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1">https://link.springer.com/article/1...
IHR is higher for nursing home residents, consistent with higher IFR for nursing home residents + older people due to more severe infections.
So IHR can be higher in older populations + lower elsewhere
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7493765/
9/H
Yet under-estimating IHRs by excluding nursing home residents, leads to IHRs are at or above Silver& #39;s value of ~2%.
With the CDC& #39;s analysis, that further undermines Silver& #39;s IHR claim.
"2.1%"
https://ingentaconnect.com/content/wk/phh/2021/00000027/00000003/art00011
"2.7%"
https://ingentaconnect.com/content/w... href=" https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666991920000329?via%3Dihub
https://sciencedirect.com/science/a... href=" https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002934321000991">https://sciencedirect.com/science/a...
Yet under-estimating IHRs by excluding nursing home residents, leads to IHRs are at or above Silver& #39;s value of ~2%.
With the CDC& #39;s analysis, that further undermines Silver& #39;s IHR claim.
"2.1%"
https://ingentaconnect.com/content/wk/phh/2021/00000027/00000003/art00011
"2.7%"
10/H
So where did @NateSilver538 go wrong?
It goes back to the New York study he relied on.
People who& #39;ve read some of my IFR threads, especially those on Ioannidis, know what I& #39;m about to say:
non-representative sampling.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙂" title="Leicht lächelndes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Leicht lächelndes Gesicht">
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255499961791328262
https://twitter.com/NateSilve... href=" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7297691/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic...
So where did @NateSilver538 go wrong?
It goes back to the New York study he relied on.
People who& #39;ve read some of my IFR threads, especially those on Ioannidis, know what I& #39;m about to say:
non-representative sampling.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255499961791328262
https://twitter.com/NateSilve... href=" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7297691/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic..." title="10/HSo where did @NateSilver538 go wrong?It goes back to the New York study he relied on. People who& #39;ve read some of my IFR threads, especially those on Ioannidis, know what I& #39;m about to say:non-representative sampling. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙂" title="Leicht lächelndes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Leicht lächelndes Gesicht"> https://twitter.com/NateSilve... href=" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7297691/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
11/H
The study Silver relied on sampled only those in grocery stores. None of the IHR work cited in 7/H to 9/H did that.
So Silver likely over-estimated the number of people infected, + thus under-estimated IHR.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1341303286272413696
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa... href=" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7454696/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic...
The study Silver relied on sampled only those in grocery stores. None of the IHR work cited in 7/H to 9/H did that.
So Silver likely over-estimated the number of people infected, + thus under-estimated IHR.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1341303286272413696
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic..." title="11/HThe study Silver relied on sampled only those in grocery stores. None of the IHR work cited in 7/H to 9/H did that.So Silver likely over-estimated the number of people infected, + thus under-estimated IHR. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa... href=" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7454696/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
12/H
Silver messed this up because he& #39;s a non-expert.
What he should have done was run this by experts first, + listened when they corrected him.
Instead he stuck to his false claims despite correction, + used this to unfairly criticize experts.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tops.12179">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/...
Silver messed this up because he& #39;s a non-expert.
What he should have done was run this by experts first, + listened when they corrected him.
Instead he stuck to his false claims despite correction, + used this to unfairly criticize experts.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tops.12179">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/...
13/H
Silver often does this sort of "epistemic trespassing," where he contradicts experts in a topic, when the problem is that he doesn& #39;t understand the information that experts do.
For example, on climate models (after speaking to @ClimateOfGavin): https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1300530097468866561">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
Silver often does this sort of "epistemic trespassing," where he contradicts experts in a topic, when the problem is that he doesn& #39;t understand the information that experts do.
For example, on climate models (after speaking to @ClimateOfGavin): https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1300530097468866561">https://twitter.com/AtomsksSa...
14/H
To modify @Potholer54T& #39;s rule:
If you& #39;re a non-expert disagreeing with the evidence-based consensus of scientific experts, then either:
1) experts know less than you
2) experts covered up what they know
3) experts know more than you
Start with #3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhQdYvz0VwQ&t=1299s">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
To modify @Potholer54T& #39;s rule:
If you& #39;re a non-expert disagreeing with the evidence-based consensus of scientific experts, then either:
1) experts know less than you
2) experts covered up what they know
3) experts know more than you
Start with #3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhQdYvz0VwQ&t=1299s">https://www.youtube.com/watch...
