How I Learned to Stop Worrying about Hesitancy and Love the Vaccine. [THREAD]

Let's be frank. The last four months have been a sprint to get those highest risk for #COVID19 in #Indiana vaccinated. But... we're past that now and into the marathon stage of vaccination. Worrying every dip in vaccination rate is a sign of hesitancy isn’t really helpful. [2/13]

Vaccine hesitancy MAY eventually be an obstacle in getting us to herd immunity for #COVID19, but even if it is (and I personally suspect it won’t be) it’s an obstacle we can overcome. [3/13]

It's been fun watching and comparing the number of people #Indiana vaccinates per day but it’s not (I repeat, NOT) a good way to tell how much of a problem vaccine hesitancy might eventually be. Especially when things like the J&J pause are happening. [4/13]

Last week we newly vaccinated an average of 15,527 people/day. Two weeks ago we were averaging 24,321/day. The thing is, what matters now is not really how many we're vaccinating in a given day but how to get as many vaccinated as possible eventually. [5/13]

We should be totally happy newly vaccinating *only* 15k/day if we can sustain that rate for long enough to get almost everyone vaccinated. It doesn't really matter that much if it's 15k/day 24k/day as long as we keep running in the right direction. [6/13]

The thing is, even if there was absolutely ZERO vaccine hesitancy in #Indiana, we would STILL expect the vaccination rate to slow down in the way it has lately (AND to continue to slow), because not everyone places the same value on vaccination. [7/13]

The vaccination rate rose rapidly early on because there were a lot of people desperate for the vaccine (Black Friday shoppers). We've mostly injected all of these people. Of those left, most value and want the vaccine, but it’s just not their all consuming top priority. [8/13]

There are those that have appointments scheduled weeks out and don’t really care to move them earlier. There are those that want to wait and talk to their primary care doctor at their next checkup. Heck, 20% of the population is still waiting to become eligible!(< age 16). [9/13]

Throw on top of this the J&J “pause” and how that disrupted many appointments and shifted supplies of Moderna & Pfizer around to cover IMS and a big slow down in vaccination is totally understandable WITHOUT bringing in vaccine hesitancy at all. [10/13]

So, what should we expect? IMO we’ll likely see vaccination rates rise for a bit now that J&J is online, but after that start slowly declining (yes DECLINING) because we’re moving on to those in less of a rush for the vaccine, so it will take longer. This is normal. [11/13]

What’s the best thing YOU can do? Engage those you know and love in conversations regarding the vaccine. Listen when they communicate why they are hesitant - most have concerns that are valid. And let them know you are available to talk through it when they are ready. [12/13]

TL;DR: We’ve likely passed our peak vaccination rate and we’re likely to see slower rates for the remaining ~65% of the population. This isn’t *because* of vaccine hesitancy (though it may be one factor) but mostly how we would expect distribution to work. [13/13]