❗️The 2020 Census apportionment counts are out! A few thoughts as we digest @BrennanCenter 🧵🔽
1.This is the next step in the 2020 Census process, not the last. The census, its quality, and its equity are evolving stories that will play out over months and years, not days.
Today’s data release is the first major output from the census, showing how many congressional seats the states will have for the next ten years.
But more data sets for more uses are coming, chief among them, the redistricting numbers—what states and localities use to redraw lines for their electoral districts
More data sets measuring the census’s quality and its racial equity are coming, too. Most importantly, the Post Enumeration Survey, which we don’t expect to see until spring 2022.
2. We need good census data, not fast census data.
Going forward, we should reject calls to speed up the remaining steps of the census process, like we’re currently seeing in Alabama and Ohio's push to speed up the redistricting files.
The Bureau needs enough time to ensure that everyone is counted properly, and processing is a major component of that.
3. It's too soon to tell how accurate the 2020 Census is.
Even if the Bureau's national- and state-level estimates are accurate, they could still contain significant undercounts. This was one of the major stories of the 2010 Census.
The Bureau's measuring sticks suggested they got the national count roughly right...
... but their other measuring sticks should that certain groups went far more undercounted than others.
We'll have more clarity on this issue over the course of the next year.
Most important will be the bureau’s Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), which, among other things, will help the bureau identify undercounts of any specific racial or ethnic group. The 2020 PES data will not be available in full until spring 2022.
Experts will analyze all this and other data sources to get a fuller sense of how well the Census Bureau did this decade.
You can follow @tomTMwolf.
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