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I've written on why relying on vaccines alone to fix this is unlikely to work for a few reasons.
1. While it's easy to explain away the India wave (fewer than 10 vaccines per 100 population) that doesn't work for Chile (72 per 100).
@BylineTimes https://bylinetimes.com/2021/04/26/vaccines-versus-variants-the-vital-flaw-in-johnsons-covid-roadmap/
1. While it's easy to explain away the India wave (fewer than 10 vaccines per 100 population) that doesn't work for Chile (72 per 100).
@BylineTimes https://bylinetimes.com/2021/04/26/vaccines-versus-variants-the-vital-flaw-in-johnsons-covid-roadmap/
Chile has vaccinated more per 100 than the UK (72 vs 66). It seems likely that the CoronaVac vaccine used in Chile is less effective than AZ or Pfizer, but nevertheless it's still been blown apart by the Brazilian P1 variant and they're back in lockdown. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56731801
2. Chile made three mistakes - assuming vaccines were enough (even after 1 dose), downplaying the need for masks and social distancing, and ignoring the threat of variants. We're in the process of making the same three mistakes.
3. Vaccines alone can't get us to 100% immunity or close to it. The UK Govt's own data says 21% are ineligible for vaccines (children, medical reasons), estimates that vaccines will be ineffective in 13% of people, which leaves a max 66% protected.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963491/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963491/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf
4. The Govt are planning to remove the requirement for masks to be worn in secondary schools from 17 May - despite schools being the #1 indoor space where large numbers of people gather. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9494245/No-masks-classrooms-month.html
This is despite the fact that school pupils are the most likely source of a new household infection. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1345858404263321600?s=20
And despite the fact that primary schools - where masks are already not required - have already been the source of new variant outbreaks on at least two occasions. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56729607
5. Meanwhile variants are on the loose. We already have the P1 variant behind the surge in Chile, the South African and Indian variants. The South African variant has been shown to reduce AZ effectiveness to 20% and to be able 'break through' Pfizer. https://www.timesofisrael.com/real-world-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-better-at-bypassing-vaccine/
Scientists are already worried that the South African variant may be too far spread to stop, despite only 600 confirmed cases. It would “completely devastate us” if health officials are unable to prevent it from spreading nationwide, say Imperial College. https://www.ft.com/content/d1a18cef-68ff-4f37-b5d7-ad522b2bbf68
6. Uncomfortable truth - our global part vaccinated state actually promotes the development of mutations. There's still lots of pandemic around. As it encounters immunity mutations get through and multiply. https://twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/status/1382038032098934786?s=20
7. Johnson says we can simply 'evolve' vaccines if we get a new variant. He's right - but he forgets that developing, manufacturing and distributing them would take months. Meanwhile as we defeat one variant a second will develop. There's no easy escape. https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain-johnson-flu-idUKS8N2K004U
8. We're going to have to add control measures to vaccines. The last lockdown brought us to well below 1,000 cases a day. A slight delay in opening up, combined with border controls and a working Test and Trace system could have got us to Zero Covid. https://twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/status/1382635154682830849?s=20
We could have chosen to join the 23% of the world’s population living free from the pandemic – as in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea.
9. Johnson tells us another wave is 'inevitable'. He may still believe in herd immunity but even if vaccines and transmission could get us there and we were willing to pay in deaths, Long COVID and lockdowns we would still be vulnerable to mutations. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inevitable-third-covid-19-wave-will-not-change-the-plan-vows-boris-johnson-pc8255xlm
10. All of which means unless we're very lucky with vaccines and mutations we're going to need more lockdowns, working test and trace, border controls, mitigations in schools, support for those isolating, masks and social distancing - and to vaccinate the world - to be free. /end
