Things we will know from today’s apportionment numbers:

* The population of each state.
* How many congressional seats each state will have for this decade.

Things we will *not* know:

*Where people live within a state.
*Their age, race, and ethnicity.

#fairmaps #2020Census

And perhaps the most important thing we will *not* know from today’s apportionment numbers:

* Whether some communities have been significantly undercounted (say, e.g., Latinos in southeast Houston).

#fairmaps #2020Census 2/

The best way to think about redistricting is as a three-act play:

Act 1: Apportionment (today), which sets the table and kicks of the process.

Act 2: Passage of maps - which will come in the fall after release of block-level pop & demographic data.

Act 3: Litigation.

But Act 1 of redistricting will be a bit different this time around, however.

In a normal year, states would have gotten apportionment numbers in mid- to late-December and then would have gotten block-level pop & demographic data in mid-Feb to late March.

This year, however, the block-level data won’t come out until August 16 in raw form and until September in more user friendly form. That’s a longer gap than normal. It also means that redistricting will start to push up against the 2022 election cycle in some states.

That will create various degrees of challenges for states. But the good news is there is a lot that can be done in the Act 1 interregnum between today’s apportionment numbers and Act 2 to keep redistricting on track.

For example, states should go ahead and set up the redistricting committees and the other bodies that will be involved in the process. No reason to wait as some states have.

States can also begin public hearings because much of the necessary input (testimony about communities, about things that people either like or don’t like about existing maps, etc.) isn’t dependent on having the block-level data that will come in August-September.

States can also release preliminary maps using data from the American Community Survey (with the caveat that data can’t be and shouldn’t be used to draw final maps).

Getting comments on preliminary maps can give mapdrawers a sense of what people like and don’t like and want in a map (it is often easier for people to comment on something than to explain what they want carte blanche).