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In this story, we have tried to grapple with the paradox of today's Venezuela: as Maduro consolidates political power, his effective control of the national territory is shrinking. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/26/world/americas/venezuela-terrorist-colombia-ELN.html?smid=tw-share
The story focuses on ELN in Guajira, but it's informed by years of reporting across Venezuela: in Perija, Tachira, Bolivar, Guarico & Caracas. The guerrilla, sindicatos, pranes are all sides of the same coin. When the state retreats, other actors step in.
Maduro survived sanctions & crushed opposition in part by unleashing market forces & allowing officials, cronies to openly make money. The flip side is that the public sector was left bankrupt, practically ceasing to exist for many poor citizens. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/world/americas/Venezuela-collapse-Maduro.html
The most striking thing we found is that amid Venezuela's economic collapse, the majority of residents in poor areas actually prefer the modicum of stability and security brought by the armed groups to the arbitrary abuses of state forces.
Organized crime needs some popular support, not just violence to prosper. The ELN are expanding in Venezuela not through military domination, but by infiltrating local economy & government. They become involved in all aspects of daily lives, making them difficult to eradicate.
In Guajira, eight different security agencies man checkpoints every few kms along the main road running to Colombia. But the police & soldiers aren't interested in keeping order or investigating crime. With official salaries at $2/month, their only focus is extortion.
Indirectly, the policing & social work is outsourced to ELN, who move freely with automatic weapons on dirt roads just meters away from the checkpoints, as we saw ourselves, dealing rough justice in return for control of smuggling routes. Many locals pray they don't leave.
The Apure campaign has shown just how hard it will be for Venezuelan government to regain control from armed groups once they become sufficiently immersed in local communities. Maduro threw his best units against a FARC faction, but after a month of fighting, ambushes continue.
