Which US states can contribute most to Biden's 2030 target? New analysis here to help address this question, focused on electricity (thread). This one got me: New England, CA, & NY produce less than 5% of US power emissions, but comprise 22% of population! https://energytransitions.org/articles/f/to-meet-biden%E2%80%99s-2030-target-which-states-can-contribute-most

First, a quick breakdown of the 2030 target for US electricity. In summary:
• 2005 electricity baseline = 2.4 Gigatons (Gt)
• 2019 electricity emissions = 1.6 Gt
• 83% below 2005 = ~0.4 Gt
• 1.2 Gt reduction needed below 2019
• 1.2 Gt = 48% of 2.5 Gt reduction through 2030

Where to find 1.2 gigatons of power sector reductions through 2030? The lowest hanging fruit is likely to be in a subset of states with the largest share of remaining coal capacity & above-average emission rates. Here's total and per capita emissions by power market:

Here’s total electricity emissions by state, along with each state’s per capita emissions compared to the avg national per capita emissions rate, as a % of avg (which was 4.9 tons CO2e per capita for US electricity in 2019):

Next, here's a rank-order of the top 15 states by all power emissions, coal power emissions, & gas power emissions. Top 15 align closely w/ those above US state avg power emissions (32 MMT in 2019). Six states appear on all three top 15 lists: TX, PA, OH, AL, GA, and NC.

For those interested in a more granular view, here's the full 50-state list, ranked by total electricity sector emissions:

Finally, two visual representations of the top 15 state emitters:

With citations to very helpful, recent contributions by @drvolts @hausfath @jeffsaintjohn @robbieorvis @megmahajan @jtaggart09 @JesseJenkins @MikeGrunwald @taylormmcnair @RicOConnell8 @BenPaulos & more