Thread by @stv_smth, Are #netzero targets a trap set by governments to delay climate action, [...]

Are #netzero targets a trap set by governments to delay climate action, as this article suggests?

I took a quick look at some numbers, and here& #39;s what I found...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧵" title="Thread" aria-label="Emoji: Thread"> https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368">https://theconversation.com/climate-s...

Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap

Prominent academics, including a former IPCC chair, round on governments worldwide for using the concept of net zero emissions to 'greenwash' their lack of commitment to solving global warming.

https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368

First some background: The article& #39;s authors (including Bob Watson, former chair of the IPCC) make several claims, but this seems to be the key point:

It& #39;s a point taken up by @GretaThunberg, too:
https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1386290077379268613?s=20

But">https://twitter.com/GretaThun... what evidence is there that the concept of #netzero specifically is leading to delay?

https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1386290077379268613?s=20

It& #39;s a point taken up by @GretaThunberg, too: https://twitter.com/GretaThun... what evidence is there that the concept of #netzero specifically is leading to delay?

So I looked whether countries with #netzero targets have been more or less likely to raise their near-term ambition, based on their NDCs...

I used three sources:
- Countries with #netzero either in law or a policy document from our @OxfordNetZero @ECIU stocktake: https://netzeroclimate.org/innovation-for-net-zero/progress-tracking/
-">https://netzeroclimate.org/innovatio... @climateactiontr NDC update tracker:
https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/
-">https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-t... @WRIClimate data on NDCs https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndcs-explore?category=overall_comparison_with_previous_ndc">https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndcs-expl...

Progress Tracking - Net Zero Climate

https://netzeroclimate.org/innovation-for-net-zero/progress-tracking/

Here are the results:
1) I& #39;m pretty sure no country with a #netzero target has backtracked on its earlier NDC. Kind of obvious, but worth noting in this context...

2) Of the 28 countries with #netzero in law or in a policy document, 8 have strengthened their NDC.
3) If including those countries with a #netzero target at the proposal stage, 24 of 73 have strengthened their NDC.
4) This compares to 11 of 90 parties without a #netzero target.

In other words, a greater fraction of countries with #netzero targets have increased the ambition of their NDCs than those without. Not what you would expect to see if #netzero is an excuse to reduce near-term ambition.

I do agree completely with the point that there isn& #39;t currently enough ambition and action for this next decade...

But is this because of #netzero? In many (most?) cases #netzero is a step up in long-term ambition. We need BOTH short-term AND long-term ambition to halt global heating.

PS Obviously targets don& #39;t achieve themselves, or can be achieved badly. This is where standards and monitoring come in, such as the Race To Zero criteria (updated today): https://racetozero.unfccc.int/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Race-to-Zero-Criteria-2.0.pdf">https://racetozero.unfccc.int/wp-conten...

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