Thread by @stv_smth, Are #netzero targets a trap set by governments to delay climate action, [...]

Are #netzero targets a trap set by governments to delay climate action, as this article suggests?

I took a quick look at some numbers, and here's what I found...

https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368

Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap

Prominent academics, including a former IPCC chair, round on governments worldwide for using the concept of net zero emissions to 'greenwash' their lack of commitment to solving global warming.

https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368

First some background: The article's authors (including Bob Watson, former chair of the IPCC) make several claims, but this seems to be the key point:

It's a point taken up by @GretaThunberg, too:
https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1386290077379268613?s=20

But what evidence is there that the concept of #netzero specifically is leading to delay?

https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1386290077379268613?s=20

So I looked whether countries with #netzero targets have been more or less likely to raise their near-term ambition, based on their NDCs...

I used three sources:
- Countries with #netzero either in law or a policy document from our @OxfordNetZero @ECIU stocktake: https://netzeroclimate.org/innovation-for-net-zero/progress-tracking/
- @climateactiontr NDC update tracker:
https://climateactiontracker.org/climate-target-update-tracker/
- @WRIClimate data on NDCs https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndcs-explore?category=overall_comparison_with_previous_ndc

Progress Tracking - Net Zero Climate

https://netzeroclimate.org/innovation-for-net-zero/progress-tracking/

Here are the results:
1) I'm pretty sure no country with a #netzero target has backtracked on its earlier NDC. Kind of obvious, but worth noting in this context...

2) Of the 28 countries with #netzero in law or in a policy document, 8 have strengthened their NDC.
3) If including those countries with a #netzero target at the proposal stage, 24 of 73 have strengthened their NDC.
4) This compares to 11 of 90 parties without a #netzero target.

In other words, a greater fraction of countries with #netzero targets have increased the ambition of their NDCs than those without. Not what you would expect to see if #netzero is an excuse to reduce near-term ambition.

I do agree completely with the point that there isn't currently enough ambition and action for this next decade...

But is this because of #netzero? In many (most?) cases #netzero is a step up in long-term ambition. We need BOTH short-term AND long-term ambition to halt global heating.

PS Obviously targets don't achieve themselves, or can be achieved badly. This is where standards and monitoring come in, such as the Race To Zero criteria (updated today): https://racetozero.unfccc.int/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Race-to-Zero-Criteria-2.0.pdf

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