Well, the elections in 10 days just got a bit more exciting...

An 11pt CON lead would mean a net GAIN of seats for the Tories, and an utterly dire result for Labour.

A 3pt CON lead would mean massive Labour gains across the country, with 10's of councils changing hands
Of course, the figure will most likely be somewhere between the 2, unless something major happens in the next few days.

I estimate the crucial figure to be a 9.7% CON lead - anything more = CON gains, anything less = LAB gains, though lots more factors at play on a local level!
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