Read on Twitter
New Ipsos MORI poll shows only a 3 point Tory lead. "Tories down five!"
However, one should really look at the fieldwork dates before getting too excited https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/conservatives-five-points-labour-opinion-poll-local-elections-hartlepool-b931731.html#britain-elects-says-hi
However, one should really look at the fieldwork dates before getting too excited https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/conservatives-five-points-labour-opinion-poll-local-elections-hartlepool-b931731.html#britain-elects-says-hi
It was conducted between the 16th-22nd, so not the weekend just gone, the weekend *before* that.
So firstly, discard any idea that it's anything to do with Boris vs Dom, the bedroom stuff and so on. Not unless respondents had time machines.
So firstly, discard any idea that it's anything to do with Boris vs Dom, the bedroom stuff and so on. Not unless respondents had time machines.
The Greensill & Cameron stuff was in the news of course (though frankly, that really isn't the sort of stuff that tends to cut through).
More importantly, my caveat when we see any unusual poll is to *wait and see if other polls show a similar trend or pattern*.
In this case we don't need to - there are already other polls by Redfield&Wilton, ComRes, Survation, Opinium & YouGov that had fieldwork that overlapped.
In this case we don't need to - there are already other polls by Redfield&Wilton, ComRes, Survation, Opinium & YouGov that had fieldwork that overlapped.
Respectively, they showed a 10 point Tory lead, a 9 point Tory lead, a 6 point Tory lead, an 11 point Tory lead and a 10 point Tory lead.
So this one is in all likelihood just an outlier. No harm in that - but you need to look at the polls as a whole, not focus on the fun ones.
So this one is in all likelihood just an outlier. No harm in that - but you need to look at the polls as a whole, not focus on the fun ones.
