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Yesterday #Libya& #39;s unity governmt delegation was prevented from landing in #Benghazi. A typically Libyan affair which revealed:
- The limits of PM #Dabeiba& #39;s tactic of buying support
- The enduring problem of #Haftar & appeasing him
- That Libya& #39;s east-west division is resurgent
- The limits of PM #Dabeiba& #39;s tactic of buying support
- The enduring problem of #Haftar & appeasing him
- That Libya& #39;s east-west division is resurgent
Before his planned arrival PM Dbeiba announced he was appointing those close to Haftar & his son Saddam to senior positions in the Defence, Finance & oil ministries
This is Dbeiba& #39;s MO & given it was associates of Saddam who stopped him landing, first time it blew up in his face
This is Dbeiba& #39;s MO & given it was associates of Saddam who stopped him landing, first time it blew up in his face
There& #39;s layers to this, sure. But at the core, Dbeiba was taught the same lesson that former PM Serraj and every diplomat working on Libya eventually learns.
Appeasing Haftar is a fools errand.
Every act of appeasement empowers him, and he only banks it and demands more
Appeasing Haftar is a fools errand.
Every act of appeasement empowers him, and he only banks it and demands more
What& #39;s most disturbing, is that under the cover of forming a unity government Libya& #39;s division is deepening fast
Dbeiba& #39;s handing out roles just so everyone can access the state. But this approach allows statelets to form- don& #39;t give someone trying to rob you a copy of your keys
Dbeiba& #39;s handing out roles just so everyone can access the state. But this approach allows statelets to form- don& #39;t give someone trying to rob you a copy of your keys
East Libya is now effectively a statelet, with:
- Parliament speaker Aguileh Salah as a political head
- Haftar providing the terror needed to capture the local economy
- Ability to influence the oil industry
- its own foreign relations with the likes of #Greece & #Egypt
- Parliament speaker Aguileh Salah as a political head
- Haftar providing the terror needed to capture the local economy
- Ability to influence the oil industry
- its own foreign relations with the likes of #Greece & #Egypt
If reports are true that #Egypt& #39;s President Sisi has negotiated for Dbeiba to be able to land-in and visit #Benghazi - #Libya& #39;s second city - then this is the starkest symbol yet that the process intended to unify #Libya after Haftar& #39;s failed putsch has been deeply subverted.
Re-upping this, my policy brief from January, for more on what can be done to preserve #Libya& #39;s unity, and why doing so is simply the most important step towards stopping it becoming a regional battlefield once more.... https://ecfr.eu/publication/spoiler-alert-how-europe-can-save-diplomacy-in-libya/">https://ecfr.eu/publicati...
