UK-EU trade figures continue to be in line with predictions (and basic economic theory). Increasing barriers to trade will reduce trade, particularly by small businesses. https://www.ft.com/content/4fa6e4be-5593-4ec3-b6b0-772cee6fad98?emailId=608679dd40986e0004dbd605&segmentId=2f40f9e8-c8d5-af4c-ecdd-78ad0b93926b

Interesting, and also predicted, that there is a small offset of increased global sales compared to EU sales. Gravity still matters, and it is harder to compete globally than regionally.

Recall though that some products are almost completely unaffected by Brexit as yet - Scotch is probably the best example, and also happens to be our largest food and drink export by sales by far. Again, there are pointers towards future UK export shape.

Going to be a lot harder for the UK to export perishable and small volume low-mid cost products in the future. Similarly in services those requiring travel to other countries. Higher volume, higher cost goods, remotely provided services will be less affected.

Import substitution on average is going to mean higher costs and less efficiency. Then again speaks to the eternal Brexit divide between those for whom it means less trade, and those for whom it means Global Britain. https://twitter.com/MichaeldeMonte2/status/1386603841253122048

I gather there was something economically illiterate in the Spectator, yes, which if correct would have meant free trade is a bad idea but Brexit has to be proved wonderful there even if that trashes much else they claim to believe. https://twitter.com/dublinvoter/status/1386602827728969731

Absolutely correct. See also - gravity effect of trade, if it isn't true you sell more regionally then we are competing globally. https://twitter.com/ellispratt/status/1386605023791128576

Key table on UK-EU food and drink trade. Scotch exports always likely to be less affected than cheese and dairy. There are going to be specific factors here such as average size of exporter. Trade barriers do not hit all parts of an economy equally.