Read on Twitter
Short thread of some Patriots-specific trends from the past decade... https://twitter.com/Tucker_TnL/status/1385730996956450816
Generally speaking, the Patriots drafted well.
Eighth in both AV/G over expected and total AV over expected, they regularly cashed in on the assets they had.
They "hit" (positive AV/G over expected) on 43/85 picks (51%)––the fifth-best rate of any team in that span.
Eighth in both AV/G over expected and total AV over expected, they regularly cashed in on the assets they had.
They "hit" (positive AV/G over expected) on 43/85 picks (51%)––the fifth-best rate of any team in that span.
NE had positive returns drafting offensive linemen (+124 AVOE), linebackers (+86), running backs (+16), defensive linemen (+1), and special teamers (+1).
They had negative returns drafting defensive backs (-65), wide receivers (-49), tight ends (-13), and quarterbacks (-9).
They had negative returns drafting defensive backs (-65), wide receivers (-49), tight ends (-13), and quarterbacks (-9).
As @chexmatrix mentions in the article, the "Patriots are bad at drafting" argument, "is likely driven by a few high profile misses (see: Duke Dawson (2018, Round 2), Cyrus Jones (2016, Round 2), Dominique Easley (2014, Round 1))."
With that said, the Pats have had negative returns in three of the last four drafts (probably too soon to really judge 2020) and have benefitted from lopsided returns on OL and LB.
AV/G over expected by year-
2017: -0.070
2018: +0.017
2019: -0.019
2020: -0.052
AV/G over expected by year-
2017: -0.070
2018: +0.017
2019: -0.019
2020: -0.052
Individual performance relative to draft position, NE draft picks:
Position-wise, NE invested...
- 8.4% of its draft capital in wide receivers, 31st in the league above only DET
- 2.5% of its draft capital in special teamers, 3rd in the league behind TB & MIN
- 1.6% of its draft capital per RB selection, 1st in the league
- 8.4% of its draft capital in wide receivers, 31st in the league above only DET
- 2.5% of its draft capital in special teamers, 3rd in the league behind TB & MIN
- 1.6% of its draft capital per RB selection, 1st in the league
NE draft pick trading:
- t-most active in pick trade market (37 trades)
- 6th-most expected surplus per trade
- slight preference for trading back
- strong preference for trading into the future
- t-most active in pick trade market (37 trades)
- 6th-most expected surplus per trade
- slight preference for trading back
- strong preference for trading into the future
That's all for this thread, but there's a ton more in the article, so give it a read!
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/HSAC-NFL-Draft-Report.html
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/HSAC-NFL-Draft-Report.html
