(🧵) Hey #ElectionTwitter! I took a look at a few races in West Virginia's 1st district. From 1953 to 1957 and again from 1969 to 1983, this seat was repped by Bob Mollohan (D-Fairmont), and his son Alan replaced him after his retirement. He won re-elect easily in 2006:
Of course, at this point in the state's history, that was no shock, and neither was Mollohan's win unopposed in 2008. However, by 2009, ethics issues were piling up around the Congressman and, despite being cleared, he went down in a messy '10 primary to State Sen. Mike Oliverio:
Oliverio's attacks on Mollohan, well-respected in his caucus, led to him being publicly snubbed by the DCCC, as did his attacks on Democratic leadership. Meanwhile, Mollohan remained unusually active in his district after his loss and openly mulled a comeback bid in 2012.
Oliverio's scorched-earth campaign against a well-established incumbent likely alienated many Mollohan supporters, with former state GOP chair David McKinley narrowly defeating him in November:
Even with Gov. Manchin winning the Senate special election at the top of the ballot that year by double digits, Democratic strength in the 1st collapsed across the board, and especially in the Panhandle and the Wheeling area as Oliverio struggled to consolidate labor support:
It's also worth noting that there's a reasonably strong correlation on the county level between Mollohan's vote share in the 2010 primary and swing to McKinley in the general:
Mollohan ultimately decided against a comeback the following cycle and McKinley hasn't faced a competitive re-election race since. Oliverio considered a rematch against McKinley in 2012 as well but chose not to run, instead running in 2018 as an R for his old seat, to no avail.
I'm still working on finding a precinct shapefile for the 2010 Census that's even kind of up to date, but in the meantime, I'll hopefully try and see what I can do with 2008 and 2010 with the 2002 file soon :)
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