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Dodgy as hell. A few curious things about how we came to know the “real” identity of the new ISIS leader raise questions about whether this information is even credible.
Leaving these here, mostly as thinking out loud. DM me if you know something.
••• #thread ••• https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1386335730151182336
Leaving these here, mostly as thinking out loud. DM me if you know something.
••• #thread ••• https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1386335730151182336
First of all, Iraqi intel identified the potential successor to Baghdadi & leaked the details in a forged ISIS release before Baghdadi was killed. (That made sense, I suspected he'd be the successor a year prior.)
Two months after the forged ISIS release, Baghdadi was killed.
Two months after the forged ISIS release, Baghdadi was killed.
Oddly, the new leader was almost immediately identified, and the name was circulated among contacts. But, significantly, various Iraqi intel agencies remained divided about that for months. One source told me the identity was long speculated, not confirmed, by the Iraqi agencies.
That uncertainty about the ISIS leader's identity made sense: how would they know immediately, or even before? ISIS top council would have to nominate & confirm him after Baghdadi's death. Unless an intel agency was listening in to that meeting, they wouldn’t know immediately.
It’d have to be until the bayat (oath of allegiance) was taken & the news circulated, or if they had a member of the top council relay the news.
@newlinesmag has revealed that this process took months, even within the organization, beyond the council. https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/a-caliph-without-a-caliphate-the-biography-of-isiss-new-leader/
@newlinesmag has revealed that this process took months, even within the organization, beyond the council. https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/a-caliph-without-a-caliphate-the-biography-of-isiss-new-leader/
It was over half a year till I saw all agreed on the leader's identity. Even then, people still disagreed about who the identified person was. Even well-informed people like Husham al-Hashemi affirmed he was a Turkoman & distinguished between him & another https://twitter.com/hushamalhashimi/status/1159888437710925827
On a separate note, I'd identified him as not a Turkoman despite what the Iraqis & Americans (and people in the know) were saying. I based my conclusion on 1) the original way I identified him as a potential successor a year prior 2) tribal origins https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1190077003099234304
This was also why I thought the forged ISIS document was an indirect leak by the Iraqis (the information was right, even as the announcement was conveyed through a fake ISIS release). This was confirmed by Feras Kilani from Iraqi intelligence in charge. https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/a-caliph-without-a-caliphate-the-biography-of-isiss-new-leader/
So in a nutshell:
1. the identity of the new leader was identified & presented as confirmed news even when that was not even possible.
2. At least one key Iraqi intel agency disputed the news for months
3. Confusion over his true identity continued for well into last year.
1. the identity of the new leader was identified & presented as confirmed news even when that was not even possible.
2. At least one key Iraqi intel agency disputed the news for months
3. Confusion over his true identity continued for well into last year.
Even if the Iraqis or the Americans had an insider source, it was still a suspicion at best, at least in the very beginning (before & right after Baghdadi killed), confirmed later. The Iraqis differed on the identity for months. Unless they had a suspicion that was later verified
I believe Qardash is the new leader, but there is a slight chance he is not. Both the Iraqis & the Americans handled basic things like tribal origins poorly, despite their great tradecraft in intelligence gathering, infiltration etc. They get it wrong a lot, so this is possible.
Having said that, this @newlinesmag exclusive on the new ISIS leader is a masterclass in reportage and relevant biographical details. Some stuff here are told for the first time ever. https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/a-caliph-without-a-caliphate-the-biography-of-isiss-new-leader/
And while you’re at it, check out this thread about this never-before-seen footage of the new ISIS leader. He was appointed a top official at the Islamic State of Iraq at the time he was defending this PhD at Mosul University, even putting an act as a Sufi or mainstream cleric: https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1383567448163590148
