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As armed clashes occur in #Mogadishu between pro- #Farmaajo and #SNA/militia allied with opposition, a few thoughts on the three significant challenges and mistakes that paved the way to tonight's developments: 1/19
First, tonight's armed clashes shouldn't have caught anyone by surprise – it was inevitable. This is history repeating itself. 2/19
Secondly, #Somalia's current ills can be attributed to these three #statebuilding mistakes (interlinked): 1) sole reliance on political dialogues/agreements over institutions, 2) independent judiciary relegated to an after-thought 3) a warped governance model. 3/19
#Somalia's nascent peace and stability has relied on dialogue and political agreements. It is how the Transitional Government came to power and how the current Federal & FMS governments exist in an undelineated political environment. 4/19
For any fractured post-conflict country like Somalia, reaching a consensus is critical. It's a logical and successful strategy, especially in the early phase of statebuilding. 5/19
However, it requires those early dialogues to produce agreed constitutional institutions and mechanism that prevents and settles major disputes for it to be sustainable in the long term. 6/19
The alternative is an individual-focused path-dependent approach — hatching a bet on future individuals' personality and leadership qualities. 7/19
In #Somalia, this has been preciously the approach: dialogue & agreements have been the sole governance & constitutional mechanism. Even though it worked in the previous #HSM 
& #SheikhSharif's administrations, it was bound to fail, and that is precisely what we are seeing. 8/19
& #SheikhSharif's administrations, it was bound to fail, and that is precisely what we are seeing. 8/19
This leads to my second point: #Somalia's #judiciary is non-existent. And it is the judiciary, specifically the Constitutional Court, that would have had the final authority to settle the current political-constitutional stalemate. 9/19
Political dialogues should have been an auxiliary mechanism to an independent judiciary. 10/19
If #Somalia's stakeholders prioritized and agreed on a powerful independent judiciary for its statebuilding, it could have averted tonight's bloodshed in #Mogadishu. 11/19
Now, for those who may argue the current constitution is provincial, my response is: exactly! This ties to the first point. #Somalia prioritized building the shell of a government and skipped the foundation. With the right set of individuals, it was bound to collapse. 12/19
This leads to my final point: a warped governance model. #Somalia's current #governance system is unsustainable and has opened the door for a power grab. 13/19
The issue isn't #federalism; it is the current hybrid semi-presidential system that has, time and again, negatively impacted #Somalia's governance. 14/19
Prime Ministers come and go at the whim of the president. For MPs, the Executive is an ATM and a vehicle for career advancement. A parliament in the Executive's pocket is a ticking time bomb — and people in #Mogadishu are living the outcome of this zero-sum politics. 15/19
A simple fix would have been a presidential executive wholly separate from the legislature. MPs can't be ministers/part of the executive branch. It may slightly hamper quick "progress," but it incentives the legislature to hold the Executive to account as a co-equal. 16/19
The current system forces the Member States, like #Puntland and #Jubaland, to serve as the entity that checks the Executive's power abuse. The danger to this approach is profound, not only to the federalism system but also to the country's stability and unity. 17/19
Not a sustainable model: A successful federal system requires congruence and symmetry of power between the FMS and the federal government. National institutions, the Upper House and Judiciary, should have been the venue for FMS-Federal Executive conflict resolution. 18/19
