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As armed clashes occur in #Mogadishu between pro- #Farmaajo and #SNA/militia allied with opposition, a few thoughts on the three significant challenges and mistakes that paved the way to tonight& #39;s developments: 1/19
First, tonight& #39;s armed clashes shouldn& #39;t have caught anyone by surprise – it was inevitable. This is history repeating itself. 2/19
Secondly, #Somalia& #39;s current ills can be attributed to these three #statebuilding mistakes (interlinked): 1) sole reliance on political dialogues/agreements over institutions, 2) independent judiciary relegated to an after-thought 3) a warped governance model. 3/19
#Somalia& #39;s nascent peace and stability has relied on dialogue and political agreements. It is how the Transitional Government came to power and how the current Federal & FMS governments exist in an undelineated political environment. 4/19
For any fractured post-conflict country like Somalia, reaching a consensus is critical. It& #39;s a logical and successful strategy, especially in the early phase of statebuilding. 5/19
However, it requires those early dialogues to produce agreed constitutional institutions and mechanism that prevents and settles major disputes for it to be sustainable in the long term. 6/19
The alternative is an individual-focused path-dependent approach — hatching a bet on future individuals& #39; personality and leadership qualities. 7/19
In #Somalia, this has been preciously the approach: dialogue & agreements have been the sole governance & constitutional mechanism. Even though it worked in the previous #HSM 
https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> & #SheikhSharif& #39;s administrations, it was bound to fail, and that is precisely what we are seeing. 8/19
This leads to my second point: #Somalia& #39;s #judiciary is non-existent. And it is the judiciary, specifically the Constitutional Court, that would have had the final authority to settle the current political-constitutional stalemate. 9/19
Political dialogues should have been an auxiliary mechanism to an independent judiciary. 10/19
If #Somalia& #39;s stakeholders prioritized and agreed on a powerful independent judiciary for its statebuilding, it could have averted tonight& #39;s bloodshed in #Mogadishu. 11/19
Now, for those who may argue the current constitution is provincial, my response is: exactly! This ties to the first point. #Somalia prioritized building the shell of a government and skipped the foundation. With the right set of individuals, it was bound to collapse. 12/19
This leads to my final point: a warped governance model. #Somalia& #39;s current #governance system is unsustainable and has opened the door for a power grab. 13/19
The issue isn& #39;t #federalism; it is the current hybrid semi-presidential system that has, time and again, negatively impacted #Somalia& #39;s governance. 14/19
Prime Ministers come and go at the whim of the president. For MPs, the Executive is an ATM and a vehicle for career advancement. A parliament in the Executive& #39;s pocket is a ticking time bomb — and people in #Mogadishu are living the outcome of this zero-sum politics. 15/19
A simple fix would have been a presidential executive wholly separate from the legislature. MPs can& #39;t be ministers/part of the executive branch. It may slightly hamper quick "progress," but it incentives the legislature to hold the Executive to account as a co-equal. 16/19
The current system forces the Member States, like #Puntland and #Jubaland, to serve as the entity that checks the Executive& #39;s power abuse. The danger to this approach is profound, not only to the federalism system but also to the country& #39;s stability and unity. 17/19
Not a sustainable model: A successful federal system requires congruence and symmetry of power between the FMS and the federal government. National institutions, the Upper House and Judiciary, should have been the venue for FMS-Federal Executive conflict resolution. 18/19
