This cone accurately describes anticipation but not reality.

Unanticipatable cascades and concatenations occur commonly in reality. They were deemed “impossible” beforehand.

Surprise is the norm. https://twitter.com/gordonbrander/status/1385252401502777352

Mostly the "adjacent possible" is what happens. Sometimes it's the "nearby possible." There are so many "distant possibles" that they add up statistically, and they happen "sometimes" too as a result, particularly when a number of them randomly reinforce each other--cascade.

Action based on INTENTION, if it is knowledgeable, humble, and alert, biases events toward the preferred possible. Alertness is necessary for adjusting action as circumstances require.

"Fire and forget" doesn't work for sustained action.

The way I would adjust the cone diagram is put a great many copies of the word "impossible"--in scare quotes--all around the outside of the cone.