This cone accurately describes anticipation but not reality.

Unanticipatable cascades and concatenations occur commonly in reality. They were deemed “impossible” beforehand.

Surprise is the norm. https://twitter.com/gordonbrander/status/1385252401502777352">https://twitter.com/gordonbra...

Mostly the "adjacent possible" is what happens. Sometimes it& #39;s the "nearby possible." There are so many "distant possibles" that they add up statistically, and they happen "sometimes" too as a result, particularly when a number of them randomly reinforce each other--cascade.

Action based on INTENTION, if it is knowledgeable, humble, and alert, biases events toward the preferred possible. Alertness is necessary for adjusting action as circumstances require.

"Fire and forget" doesn& #39;t work for sustained action.

The way I would adjust the cone diagram is put a great many copies of the word "impossible"--in scare quotes--all around the outside of the cone.