





In March, we saw many states with 90%+ of delivered supply used. That was very efficient vaccine usage, but also tight supply.
Those % figures are now falling, as they probably should. Tight supply is not what you want when you're targeting harder-to-reach/convince populations.
Those % figures are now falling, as they probably should. Tight supply is not what you want when you're targeting harder-to-reach/convince populations.
The Biden admin says they're pursuing a policy of "overwhelm the problem". That means:
Lots of vaccine sitting around, ready
At lots of locations
Many open appointments
If you saw that in March, you'd say "this is a failure." This is a different point in the rollout.



If you saw that in March, you'd say "this is a failure." This is a different point in the rollout.
The Biden team was very happy, as were lots of people, about big dose numbers a month ago. Here's how they're talking about it now, which more or less matches w/ my read:
“Going forward, we expect daily vaccination rates will moderate and fluctuate.”
“We’ve gotten vaccinations to the most at-risk and those most eager to get vaccinated as quickly as possible."
“It’s OK if there’s not a long line of 1,000 people... That’s good, that was the plan.”
“We’ve gotten vaccinations to the most at-risk and those most eager to get vaccinated as quickly as possible."
“It’s OK if there’s not a long line of 1,000 people... That’s good, that was the plan.”
I think that's correct. It doesn't mean there's not a lot of work to do! It just means that work, and the numbers, look different.
"Mass" vaccination is useful when you have a huge mass of people who all need and want to be vaccinated at once.
What's next is more boutique.
"Mass" vaccination is useful when you have a huge mass of people who all need and want to be vaccinated at once.
What's next is more boutique.
This whole
is more or less what I've written here, btw: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-25/when-will-u-s-vaccination-be-done-we-re-getting-closer?sref=leQ3i2ya




There is some very good news here. There are a LOT of people who have gotten their first shots. Almost all of them seem likely to complete their second. (I know there's a sort of doomsy piece in the Times today, but... it's still 92% completion)
Right now, the U.S. is about where Israel was in mid-Feb. (This uses our apples to apples "enough for X% metric, which helps create good comparisons).
They kept vaccinating after that point to about 50% of their pop. (and are now at ~60%).
Look at the case curve.
They kept vaccinating after that point to about 50% of their pop. (and are now at ~60%).
Look at the case curve.
(The usual caveats: The U.S. isn't Israel, etc etc etc)
I hope this helps people as they think about how to read the numbers going forward. In short:
Supply % is gonna go up
Vaccine numbers are going to go down
The next phase means reaching people at a grind, not a rush
That's probably fine




Here's our full vaccine tracker, which I hope you'll give a look at bookmark: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?sref=leQ3i2ya
And here's my story, which has a few things not in this thread: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-25/when-will-u-s-vaccination-be-done-we-re-getting-closer?sref=leQ3i2ya