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MbZ is in Cairo. Lots of chatter in recent weeks swirling about UAE mediation over GERD. Whether that happens is not the issue. Rather. How real is option of UAE mediation? Thread (1/10):
1. I repeat, again, that none of the efforts to convene talks are classed officially as mediation. It’s not. It’s facilitation of the parties: whether that was D.C., then AU (incl recent Kinshasa talks). The “quartet” suggestion of US/UN/EU/AU mediation is a massive jump...
No wonder Ethiopia has rejected. Ethiopia has also rejected such a suggestion because it doesn’t want UN+ eyes on or in the country at a time when crimes committed in Tigray are on the radar, and instability threatens other regions in the country.
2. UNSC will not change a decades+ precedent of *not* engaging in non-violent conflicts. In addition, some permanent members have their own transboundary water management issues/questions. So, that’s not really going to go anywhere. Same goes for “sanctions” too.
A lot of “hype” in recent weeks is the annual flare-up we’ve become accustomed to re: GERD and fill. And Egypt has already shown signs of relenting somewhat towards the year 2 fill. The problems that remain beyond the fill, and are more damaging, relate to river management...
And specific fill effects on Sudan, which, up until this year have remained largely ignored as everyone focuses (wrongly) on the more powerful Egypt/Ethiopia dynamic. It’s also because Sudan’s position is more nuanced and cannot be fit neatly into a “support/reject” binary.
Back to UAE: let’s be clear, Sudan wants a mediating partner who might actually be able to mediate. Egypt wants an international partner with clout. Ethiopia couldn’t care less at this point considering its domestic & regional dynamics and upstream position that gives it power.
Sudan asked UAE to intervene in this latest attempt to woo. Egypt and Ethiopia don’t want a mediator, they want a financial backer. And both have been attempting to push Abu Dhabi into that position for about 2 years at least...
Any suggestion a solution can come from outside the tripartite is doomed to fail. Nevertheless, if US/EU are going to step up then they must do so with all invested parties incl Gulf. Not because they’re necessary but because they have a tendency to be spoilers if not included.
The gulf parties have little say during eg: Iran deal when nations more powerful than them are negotiating, but in this issue, they have a direct interest, heavily invested and can spoil any outcome for nations on the whole less powerful than they are. /END
