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Yesterday, after a long discussion with a close family member who is a US MD phd, we agreed that with world's best #contagion models (% masks & social interaction) available in world today, the covid take-off could at best have been predicted 7 to 10 days before it exploded...2/
2/covid #Covid Pragmatic suggestion is to ban all #Social gatherings of > 7-10 people (indoors & outdoors), till curve turns down, but don't stop economic activity (w cumplusory masking, distancing). Once curve flattens, outdoor gathering restrictions can be eased with masking
3/covid Cities/towns/urban,/semi urban; rural markets/melas areas are where there is the greatest interaction between people (mobility & personal interaction are the key parameters in these virus spread models) https://twitter.com/gopimaliwal/status/1386195204739264512
4/covid #COVID Indoor social gathering restriction may hv to remain till active cases are <200,000; Unless #indoor area has #HEPA filters and/or #UV lights for eliminating virus from the air inside rooms/halls: Govts(C&S) must urgently incentivize HEPA/UV installation
5/covid There is now a clear consensus, that speedy & universal #vaccination is critical to containing the virus and its current & potential new mutations. Severe/critical sickness requires focused sln: Key distinction is btwn those with & w/o co-morbidities; latter...6/covid
6/covid Latter can be treated at Secondary Health Centers augmented with prefab halls, beds, oxygen supply & trained nurses to administer simple drugs. More Hospital facilities needed for those with co-morbidities (heart, etc), as treatment for COVID per se, is still undeveloped
7/covid 
Focus on the world-wide Lessons of Covid management, and apply them in #India (instead of pushing pet projects & programs like doubling Govt health expenditures). One of many lessons
https://twitter.com/aranganathan72/status/1386224560308047875
Focus on the world-wide Lessons of Covid management, and apply them in #India (instead of pushing pet projects & programs like doubling Govt health expenditures). One of many lessons https://twitter.com/aranganathan72/status/1386224560308047875
8/covid One model whose projections we discussed(see 1st tweet in thread) is at https://covid19.healthdata.org/india?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend
10/covid Union & (lrg)State Govts, should setup 2 level structure under @PMOIndia & #CMOs, to handle crisis: (1) A COVID advisory group of epidemiologists, doctors, sociologists, economists, (2) An operational group headed by a super bureaucrat & hospitals, producer-supplier reps
11/covid (further to 6/covid): All Primary Health Centers (PHCs) can also be used as " #Screening #centers". New Screening Centers may also have to be set up in highly affected cities/towns, for the duration of the epidemic. Screening at #SHC level must also asses co-morbidities
12/covid #SciMe (=Scientific Method) yesterday I got India #Covid data(till April 23) & started organizing & examining it ( #BeWare: It's not as easy as it sounds, unless U already hv a proved theory, which explains it. In current uncertain situation, it's Hi risk). Preliminary
https://twitter.com/dravirmani/status/1386915696899018756
https://twitter.com/dravirmani/status/1386915696899018756
13/covid Dr Devi Shetty is the kind of well informed & pragmatic professional, who would make an excellent member/co-chair/chair (depending on time availability) of the advisory group mentioned at 10/covid: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/the-crisis-thats-coming-soon-we-will-run-out-of-skilled-personnel-to-treat-covid-heres-how-to-tackle-this/
14/covid India needs #Standardized #Protocols for treatment of Mild, Moderate, Severe COVID infection (with & w/o co-morbidities), to maximize effectiveness of an overloaded health system. Dr G Kang confirmed that there's a epidemic of drug #misuse by scared patients, doctors.
15/covid What we recommended at 6/covid is consistent with what actually worked at district level (with much smaller numbers) http://dhunt.in/ewZn1?ss=twt&s=i&uu=0x81fbb01cb77a57c0
