(Thread)
Been debating something: what does Turkey do with the Biden declaration of Armenian genocide? They have summoned the U.S. ambassador. But will the response be at the level of a protest, a verbal counterattack, a defiant geopolitical act, or something more grave?...
A diplomatic protest will no doubt be lodged, indeed is already likely being lodged. Erdogan may attack Biden publicly. But then Turkey could lash out in other ways. Harassing Greek shipping. Purchasing a new round of Russian weaponry etc. But this isn’t the worst case...
What if Turkey weighs a world in which American influence in the Near East is ebbing to a post-War on Terror low, a world in which they won the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to the surprise of all with cutting edge drone attacks. A world where Russia is the closest ME great power...
The most provocative possibility that isn’t getting enough attention is this: what if Erdogan decides NATO membership is more of a hinderance than an asset. Turkey could decide NATO is simply not working for their regional interests and global aspirations any further...
Ankara exiting NATO would be unexpected (but a state bailing on the EU was supposedly impossible too until Brexit happened) and the consequences could upend one of the last certainties of post-WW2 security framework: NATO member states don’t leave. But Turkey may...
This would free Erdogan’s hand to become an off-shore balancer of sorts, bridging the divide between Europe and the Middle East, and NATO and Russia, recreating the successful efforts of India and other states during Cold War, who become rising powers in the shadow of rivals...
This would create a new power center with remarkable leverage in the Near East, able to force concessions from Europe by pivoting on migration and trade, from Russia by ad hoc alignment with former NATO states, and from US with ad hoc alignment with Russia/China...
Last point is particularly important, as Belt and Road Initiative becomes a geostrategic/economic reality, Erdogan, who already fancies himself a Neo-Ottoman leader, might recreate the power of that ancient empire’s greatest influence: as an independent trade gateway to Orient...
Biden’s declaration isn’t the only cause, Trump era sanctions, and a multi year structural chill between Washington and Ankara post-pandemic will only get worse. Worth watching. (End of thread).
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