ASEAN Leaders Meeting yesterday agreed to a "Five-Point Consensus" on Myanmar.

on options, how we got here, and what lies ahead:

1) - points 1, 2, 4 (cessation of violence, inclusive dialogue, AHA-delivered aid) are the *principled outcomes* ASEAN seeks to deliver
- points 3 and 5 (special envoy and in-country visit) are the *methods of delivery* of those outcomes.
The distinction here matters.

While ASEAN agreed on the "basic ingredients" (diff members proposed different points above w/ all agreeing), the formula (method and sequence) to "mix and bake" them remains to be fleshed out. This is where the real hard work comes next.

2) Qs remain:
a) timing (when do we start and when will it end?)
b) phased sequence + commitment verification (all 5 cannot happen at once)
c) funding (who provides resources and how?)
d) mandate and authority (who reports to whom?)
e) Myanmar participants
f) int. community role

3) significance:
- This is the *only* concerted int. diplo effort on the table to deal w/ Myanmar crisis. There is nothing else in terms of potential solutions that doesn't involve a prolonged conflict of attrition. We need to help ASEAN to deliver and implement the 5-point.

- Almost everyone was skeptical that ASEAN can be united enough to deliver anything; even more so since it invited MAH and some leaders absent. As it turns out, ASEAN delivers when many doubt it the most. Finding workable options a lot harder than pointing out mistakes and flaws.

4) it was extremely difficult to get AMS to agree on an ASEAN-led framework. After shuttle diplo + informal FM meetings, JKW had to call a special summit to raise the stakes and get the ball rolling further. How ASEAN came together yesterday should not be dismissed out of hand.

5) What we have now is the *foundation* and start of an ASEAN-led process. The 5-point is not the end *deal* or *solution* to the crisis, yet. So critics unhappy with the content should propose workable ideas to include into the process as we move forward for Myanmar.
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