Pundits on both sides are attacking us for saying Ron DeSantis has a 70% chance of losing reelection in Florida. But the trends and numbers support what we said. It just doesn't fit the "DeSantis is inevitable" narrative that pundits on both sides are trying to milk for ratings.
DeSantis is polling break-even for 2022. At this early stage, an incumbent like him should be way ahead in the polls, based on name recognition and the fact that none of his potential Democratic opponents have even entered the race yet.
In other words, DeSantis is currently on track to lose. Lots can change between now and then. But he would need to suddenly figure out how to become far more popular in Florida than he's ever been at any point since he took office, which is unlikely.
DeSantis faces the same problem that Trump faced heading into 2020: if your numbers suck and you can't improve them, you're going to lose. You can rig a super close election. But as we keep seeing, you cannot rig one that's decided by more than a point or two.
DeSantis is not in nearly as deep of a hole as Trump was. But then Trump's numbers always made clear that he never had more than a 10% chance of reelection. DeSantis has perhaps a 30% chance. You can quibble over the specific number, but the odds are clearly against DeSantis.
"But he's a Republican in Florida, so he's obviously going to win big!"

DeSantis only won by 0.4% of the vote in 2018.

Florida is not a red state.
"But Trump lives in Florida now, so DeSantis will obviously win!"

This is nonsensical, no matter how many times it gets repeated.
"But I keep hearing from the media that DeSantis is a frontrunner for president in 2024, so how could he possibly lose reelection in 2022?"

You're looking at it backwards. He's demonstrably on track to lose in 2022, so how can the media possibly label him a frontrunner for 2024?
November 2022 is a long time. DeSantis currently has a 70% chance of losing, but things can and do change. We have to keep close tabs on him and keep the pressure on.

But the factually accurate narrative is that he's on track to lose in 2022, so let's finish him off then.
The single best thing DeSantis has going for him is that because the entire media is insisting he's invincible for 2024, we might get fooled into passing up an easy opportunity to take him down in 2022. Don't let the media screw you over with its false, ratings-driven narratives.
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