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A thread on the worse that is coming- only 20 ish days from now! #COVIDIndia is a humanitarian crises 
Daily deaths are best predictor of pandemic course & @IHME_UW estimates mid-May peak of 13300 deaths/day. (prepare for worst)
Context we are now at 2800 ish deaths/day !
Daily deaths are best predictor of pandemic course & @IHME_UW estimates mid-May peak of 13300 deaths/day. (prepare for worst)
Context we are now at 2800 ish deaths/day !
The mid-May peak translates to estimated need of
•33,77,700+ beds
•3,44,400+ ICU beds
The humanitarian crises in 20ish days can only be mitigated by health systems preparedness & global solidarity. This is anto the world from 
•33,77,700+ beds
•3,44,400+ ICU beds
The humanitarian crises in 20ish days can only be mitigated by health systems preparedness & global solidarity. This is an
to the world from
For mid-May peak of 3,44,470 ICU patients ( @IHME_UW estimate ), some back of hand calculations using Ind Soc Critical Care Med ICU standards.
We will at least need
68,894 ICU trained Doctors
1,72,235 ICU trained Nurses 
Non-ICU overwhelmed to count !
We will at least need
68,894 ICU trained Doctors1,72,235 ICU trained Nurses Non-ICU overwhelmed to count !
All this means that 959,561 Indians will be dead due to COVID by Aug 1. Worst case - 1,04,55,606 dead . There will be no one in who has not lost a loved one .
Lockdown+ direct transfer(= 30 day wage stat)
+Free N95mask + global aid is our ONLY way out of #COVIDWave2
who has not lost a loved one . Lockdown+ direct transfer(= 30 day wage stat)
+Free N95mask + global aid is our ONLY way out of #COVIDWave2
