#COVID19India

The IHME estimates circulating a couple days back, indicated 'true' daily case counts @ 6M+ (currently) for India, off a rather complex model. What didn't sit well with me was the suggestion of an undercount by 28-30x.

Working with these numbers...+ https://twitter.com/UntergrundmannG/status/1385972122791538689

...for over a year now, my sense of the true count ranges in the region of 6-8x, serosurveys + second/third regional waves + undertesting + underreporting all put together.

The WHO paper (shared earlier) on adjustment of TPR seemed to suggest a method to estimate...+

... a reasonable level for the 'true' daily infection counts, using just the testing data and reported daily case counts.

In a pandemic, testing generally scales linearly, while the infection spreads exponentially. Which suggested that the TPR adjustment ... +

... based off the difference in growth rates in daily cases versus daily tests, might provide a heuristic that could be less shocking than the IHME estimates.

Managed to work that out and the numbers seem to line up with my sense of the actual counts. Took a while to ... +

... figure out an approach consistent for all states, given the differences in their reporting and reliability.

The implication for any estimate is the CFR and the fatalities. The Q that's problematic is how long and to what extent can 10x-30x death counts daily be missed.
+

I don't think people would sit quiet beyond a point.

This () is the table for the major states. Aggregate count off their dailies (estimated as of today) is around 1.2M. If it's worse than this, we're in deep trouble.

ODC: Observed Counts
EDC: Estimated Counts