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I may just be screaming this into the void, but I’ve had a theory/observation about the future of European Football for a while now, and the evidence is becoming too extensive to not say anything about it. THREAD:
Unless you've been living under a rock, you're probably familiar with the recent proposal (and swift collapse) of the European Super League. Due to the massive fan outrage, among other issues, it's pretty safe to assume that the Super League will never happen...
...sort of. The European Super League idea we're all familiar with that involves the largest European clubs breaking away from their respective domestic leagues is clearly not going to happen, for a multitude of reasons that I don’t need to go into detail about
However, that doesn't mean that there isn't still massive wealth inequality in European Football. A breakaway Super League isn't on the cards, but I believe that we're seeing the beginning stages of an "organic" Super League starting to form in England
Due to the capitalistic nature of Football, there is a rapidly expanding wealth gap between the Premier League and the rest of the world, and it only seems like that rate of expansion is increasing
Roughly 10-15 years from now, I strongly believe that the Premier League will have amassed so much more money than their European counterparts that eventually every single one of the best players on the planet will be playing in England.
Why do I think this? Well, let's start by looking at revenues. It's no secret the Premier League rakes in a lot of cash every year, but the visualization of just how badly they blow their competition out of the water really puts it into perspective.
The PL earns nearly double the revenue of their nearest competitors each year AND has a significantly higher growth rate. The growth rate is arguably the most important aspect here, because if that rate continues, there’s no way any of the other leagues will be able to catch up
Look at how much money these clubs are making from JUST the Premier League. This doesn't even take other sources of revenue into consideration like sponsorships, ticket sales, transfer earnings, etc. Splitting the TV money evenly among all 20 is huge for competition too.
Speaking of TV revenues, The PL started to drastically separate itself from the rest of europe with a massive milti-billion-pound TV deal in 2013, then added to that in 2016 and 2019, and will surely do it again in 2022.
To put this into perspective on how their current tv deal compares to other leagues, here is the breakdown of tv value per match in each league. The PL’s value per match is more than TRIPLE the average of the other Big 5 leagues
This disparity in broadcast revenue would become unfathomable if the PL managed to successfully produce its own OTT streaming service:
A huge part of this burgeoning revenue gap is the fact that the Premier League’s international appeal is unmatched. English is the most widely-spoken language in the world (~1/7 of the entire world's population can speak English)
This makes it especially easy to be the leader in huge English-speaking markets outside of Europe such as the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, a multitude of African nations, parts of Asia, etc.
But arguably the #1 thing the PL has going for it in terms of international appeal is the competitiveness of the league. The main reason the Super League was even considered is the fact that most leagues only have one or two teams that can realistically win the title each year.
The Premier League has had 5 unique winners in recent years, whereas the other Big 5 leagues are, to put it mildly, a bit more predictable.
Currently, the Premier League has at least 4 or 5 teams you could see winning the title in any given year, and about 10 total with a realistic shot at finishing in one of the CL or EL places.
These numbers will only increase as the "next tier" clubs outside the Big 6 continue to accumulate wealth. A big factor in this, as mentioned before, is that all of the TV revenues are shared among clubs equally, which will only increase as international interest grows
~5-10 years from now, those aforementioned "next tier" clubs (Everton, Villa, Leicester, West Ham, Wolves, Leeds, Newcastle if they ever get sold, etc) will most likely be able to outspend almost every non-English club in the world
And in that same timeframe, the Big 6 clubs in England will all likely end up being able to outspend even the likes of Bayern, Juve, Barca, Real, and PSG.
Don't believe me? The trend is already starting to move in that direction, and nothing highlights that more than Transfermarkt’s total value of each league. Again, the PL's value is already significantly higher than the other Big 5 leagues, and this gap is only going to widen
The Premier League dominates Transfermarkt's individual club values as well. This is how the other top-5 leagues currently compare in certain segments of the list:
TOP 10:
ENG-5
ESP-3
GER-1
FRA-1
ITA-0
TOP 40:
ENG-14
ESP-7
ITA-7
GER-5
FRA-4 https://www.transfermarkt.com/spieler-statistik/wertvollstemannschaften/marktwertetop
TOP 10:
ENG-5
ESP-3
GER-1
FRA-1
ITA-0
TOP 40:
ENG-14
ESP-7
ITA-7
GER-5
FRA-4 https://www.transfermarkt.com/spieler-statistik/wertvollstemannschaften/marktwertetop
It's obvious, but also important to note that each time a PL club buys a player from another league, they not only add value to themselves, but also simultaneously take value away from the selling league, thus widening value the gap further with every foreign purchase
The outlook for other leagues only gets worse when you consider that many of them are in pretty significant debt. Here's France: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/dec/15/ligue-1-clubs-stare-financial-abyss-tv-deal-collapses-mediapro
And Spain (more specifically Barcelona). This is why these Spanish and Italian clubs needed the Super League so badly
England is starting to pull ahead in European competitions as well, leading the way in UEFA coefficient by a significant margin over every country other than Spain. At the time of writing, there are 8 clubs left playing in the CL/EL, and half of them are English.
I could go on with the wealth gap, but this thread is already pretty long, and I just want people to read it without getting too overwhelmed, so I'll leave you with one last piece of information (and in my opinion, the most damning piece of evidence)
