“We are absolutely in the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Dr. Osterholm ( @mtosterholm) to the @mplssynod assembly

Our ICUs have as many patients now as we did last December.

We’re far from over with this.

Michigan— whose vaccination rate is slightly lower than ours— has gone through the hardest period of the pandemic in the past 4 weeks. The possibility of more Michigans is very real.

Variances interact with our bodies in different ways, and actively threat the security of our vaccines. This is still wide open. The variant we’re seeing in MN is a virus that is 50-100% more transmissible, and is causing much more illness. This is the one spreading in children.

There are, as of last week, 790 schools with confirmed positive cases; this is similar to the peak last November. The difference right now is that in those 790 schools, there is significantly higher transmission between children.

We’re seeing a significant increase in intensive care hospital visits among those in their 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s. Not only is this variant more infectious, but it is causing more severe illness. The vaccine is working well against this particular variant. That’s the good news.

The evidence points to a hopeful reality, that vaccinated, unmasked people who are spending time outdoors or not transmitting the virus.

The significant threat is indoor activity with others.

Masking indoors gives you 50-60% protection of particles going in or out, if you’re using surgical masks. Cloth masks are less effective. We need to wear them still but also be aware that time with and distance from others is the important thing.

Right now we are faced with the difficult issue of trying to live practically AND wisely.

@mtosterholm

The reality is that right now we have lots of transmission in indoor public gathering spaces like schools.

“Let me put it personally: I wouldn’t come to church. And I’m double vaccinated.” @mtosterholm

When might Dr. Osterholm be willing to come to worship in person?

Wish: yesterday.
Reality: When people are more vaccinated.

“Some people say, ‘you can’t make me get vaccinated!’ but if there was ever a Christian spirit, ‘love thy neighbor,’ you would do that to protect your neighbor! If you don’t even believe yourself that it’s right, like ‘I don’t want to get it,’ then that’s a challenge.” [...]

[...] “We still do have to worry about the immunocompromised, even after they’ve been vaccinated, and I don’t want to see us putting them at increased risk. We’ve seen many, many outbreaks related to indoor worship.” [...]

[...] “ I can tell you with certainty that worship services indoors, funerals, weddings, special occasions where everybody thought it was going to be OK, that it wasn’t. It wasn’t. That’s what we want to avoid.” @mtosterholm

“You’re going to see people coming up with these recommendations or requirements that are seemingly based on lots of science, and they’re not. They’re not! We have to just be honest about when we know what the hell we’re talking about and when we don’t. [...]

[...] For me to say ‘you have to be this far away for this long? I can’t say that. But I can say if you’re moving around in an outdoor park, you’re not in a crowded location, you’re not in crowded elevators, you know what? Do it.”

Dr. Osterholm has been hearing from ICU doctors whose dying patients— who don't believe in the severity of the virus— have been asking to tell their families they died of something other than COVID.

"I'm not telling people to wear masks the rest of their lives. At some point we need to find a balance and make tough choices. But I'm not saying we should take irrational risk. That's the challenge: what is the acceptable risk? We're never getting this to zero."

Q: When might you imagine people being able to go watch... a Gophers basketball game, for example, in person?
A: "This is where you— the Church— can help. It's when a vast majority of people get vaccinated. Help educate the public!"

"Getting vaccinated is about helping everyone. If there was ever a Christian thing to do... Jesus would have been one of our most prolific vaccinators, and the Virgin Mary would have been there to help out, and the Apostles would have been a part of the ancillary staff!"

On church leaders trying to make decisions on when it will be safe to worship in person:

"Let me just say this with a supportive smile on my face: it's ALWAYS a good day to worship. You don't have to do it with everybody else. Just WORSHIP, OK? It's important." -Dr. @mtosterholm

"Anybody who has all the answers to what's happening right now probably also has a bridge to sell you, so be careful. If nothing else I've tried today to share with you what I know and what I don't know. What I find most important right now is humility. [...]

[...] We don't know what's going to happen. We've got a number of states where the vaccination rates among folks who are at higher risk— communities of color, the elderly, those without access to healthcare (etc.). I mean if we want to talk about systemic racism right now [...]

[...] look at this disease. It's torn every possible cover off of that oozing wound like I can't believe. We need to understand that in the concept of science, social justice, and practical living, there is no magical one answer." @mtosterholm

Recap:
1) Indoor worship with mixed (vaccinated an unvaccinated) is risky and not recommended at all.
2) Outdoor worship is recommended model for now.

If you can assure that everybody in the congregation is vaccinated, go for it.

"If I could be at a Sunday service where everybody in the room is vaccinated, I'd be there with a smile so wide it would go from window to window."

-Dr. Michael Osterholm ( @mtosterholm)

"We're not driving this tiger, we're riding it."