2. especially important to me so I sincerely hope you will follow along. The thread is about 2 weeks in the making. I wanted to wait until after the trial and then wait until there wasn't a mass shooting or when an unarmed Black person wasn't killed by police. Needless to say,
3. I've had some difficulty finding the right time. This thread doesn't address the social ills in America, but my conclusions will impact them. If I'm right, the impact will be positive. A few weeks ago I noticed that some on television and print media were beginning to
4. handicap the midterms. If you were dem (which I am, you might find their prognosis depressing. As I listened I thought to myself, 'I think they're wrong and I've got to speak to the family before this bs settles in. As I listened the image of an aging lothario came to my mind.
5. You know, the guy with the hairy chest who once wore his shirt unbuttoned showing off his gold chains who could attract a bunch of women at the club by being what he considered a smooth-talking guy who no longer realizes that things have changed and his schtick doesn't work
6. any longer cause times have changed. This is how I viewed the media coverage I saw. The consensus was that dems would probably lose the House and would have a difficult time keeping their slim majority in the Senate. What pissed me off was the basis of the conclusion was that
7. the party in "power" ie, (WH) usually loses its majority. This is not only an old way of thinking it's friggin lazy journalism. So I decided to investigate the prospects myself. After I thought about I thought, of cmon here we go again. "They need to make it seem like a
8. horserace for ratings and clicks." Bastards😒I too considered history, but I also factored in what is happening in the country today. IMHO, the GOP is going to have a difficult time taking the majority in both the House and the Senate. They seem to be banking on restricting
9. voter access as well as other tactics which have a strong chance of backfiring in a big way. Before I get into those, let's look at some stats.
10. 📌In January approximately 140k republicans officially left the party (changed affiliation) across 25 states. This is significant b/c the number is based on the records and officially changing affiliation is an active rather than passive move. As I've said before, party
11. affiliation has as much to do with an individual's self-image as it does with a party's policies. So to the degree that the GOP aligns itself with racists and Q-nuts, it will lose people who don't want to see themselves as"like them." The act of changing party is also a way
12 distancing themselves, in their own minds. This in turn affects how they vote.
📌In addition to his flight. As of the 1st quarter of '21 49% of adults identified as Dem or as Independents who lean Dem while only 40% identified as GOP. This is the largest affiliation gap since
13. 2012. But the problems for the GOP don't stop there. It's not only that they're losing voters, it's who they are losing. And the people they may be gaining trying to hold on to don't help.
📌53% of college-educated voters identify as Dem while only 40% identify as GOP. This
14. is a significant drop since 2000 when the GOP had a clear majority. In terms of the '22 midterms, this may have a significant impact.
☑️Let's look at the stats from the '18 midterms
📌64% of people w/ a college degree voted
📌52% of people with some college voted
15. 📌Only 39% of people with a high school degree voted.
📌Only 20% of people without even a high school degree voted
📌Since the GOP has focused on low information voters (let's be nice and call them that. They are going to have to seriously gin up turnout to make up for the
16 loss of college-educated voters, so enthusiasm will be key, but it will be a challenge.
📌In 2000, the GOP and Dems were evenly split among young voters (18-29), now it appears the Dems have about a 35% advantage. In '20, we had record turnout of young voters and the issues
17. most important to them were racial equality, gun control, and climate change, not exactly areas of strength for the GOP. Further, the young vote is much more diverse than it was in 2000. Keep in mind that of us citizens aged 1-18, the majority are POC.
18. With these stats as the background, I will explain why I think the GOP will have a hard time.
☑️ In terms of the Senate, they just have too many seats to defend and the open PA and NC seats present pickup opportunities for Dems and the NV seat and Kelly's AZ seat will be
19. difficult for the GOP to flip. I also think Walker will run in GA. As you may have heard, that race is frozen on the GOP side since Walker is trump's pick. This makes the Warnock seat another tough one to flip. I will focus on GA later. But the GOP has many hurdles
20. to overcome. Here's the list of things I've identified.
🛑The GOP is having a difficult time demonizing Biden, and it will likely get more difficult as time goes on. As COVID restrictions are eased and people get to do more of the things they used to do, the
21. good feelings that they have will accrue to democrats, unfairly or not. The infrastructure plan creates an even bigger challenge as the Biden admin I doing an end-run. It said it wanted to get things done in a bipartisan manner, but as the admin has said,
22. Bipartisan does not necessarily mean with the House or Senate. They are reaching out to GOP Govenors who also have crumbling roads and bridges, potholed streets and limited internet service. For the first time in a long time, states can get Fed dollars for such projects and
23 thus improve the lives of their constituents and accrue massive goodwill for their re-elections. The calculus may be that these Governors place pressure on their Senators and congresspeople to pass the legislation. it will also help the states to create jobs and they can do
24. all of this without busting their budgets. Again, ultimately all benefits accrue to the democrats.
🛑The GOP had a chance to neutralize trump and they didn't take it b/c of his voters. Because of their unwavering devotion to him and the fact that candidates that wish to win
25. primaries are imitating him, he will weigh them down just as he did in '18, but they won't have the benefit of him driving the turnout of his voters as they had in '20. Finally the culture wars. There are already signs that this component will backfire. In order for a
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