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This thread is not a thread on what $FTCH is or does but more on events news flow this week related to $FTCH
There has been a lot of news flow this week in the luxury space & internet retailing space which would have read across for $FTCH heading into Q1 earnings
There has been a lot of news flow this week in the luxury space & internet retailing space which would have read across for $FTCH heading into Q1 earnings
1. Credit Suisse have disclosed yesterday that 97% of its positions linked to Archegos have been liquidated removing the hangover risk for $FTCH
2. Many of the big luxury players have reported Q1 numbers this week/ last week
LVMH $MC.FP kicked off with a bang
- Fashion & leather goods division +52% (easy company given COVID hit Asia in Q1’20)
- However looking back vs a normalised Q1’19, F&LG is +32%
LVMH $MC.FP kicked off with a bang
- Fashion & leather goods division +52% (easy company given COVID hit Asia in Q1’20)
- However looking back vs a normalised Q1’19, F&LG is +32%
-CFO commented there has been no slowdown in online in F&LG
Kering reported strong Q1 numbers and highlighted an acceleration in online growth. Kering Online sales growth was low triple digit in Q1 https://twitter.com/mrbuyside/status/1384538380948680705
Kering reported strong Q1 numbers and highlighted an acceleration in online growth. Kering Online sales growth was low triple digit in Q1 https://twitter.com/mrbuyside/status/1384538380948680705
Hermes: reported excellent Q1 sales significantly beating consensus
On the conference call management commented “we have seen that when stores reopen, the pace of online growth doesn’t come down”.
On the conference call management commented “we have seen that when stores reopen, the pace of online growth doesn’t come down”.
Moncler: numbers were solid but not as outstanding as the other 3 big players given more seasonality element to moncler with no leather goods
On the call IR highlighted Q1 growth was driven by China & by online:
“outstanding e-commerce growth, accelerating significantly in Q1”
On the call IR highlighted Q1 growth was driven by China & by online:
“outstanding e-commerce growth, accelerating significantly in Q1”
3. Read across from European online retail:
Zalando $ZAL:
Q1 GMV growth guidance increased to 54.5-56.5% accelerating from +38% yoy in Q4 2020.
$NXT.LN Next (UK online retail):
Feb/Mar-21 online sales +60% yoy, accelerating from +31% yoy in H2’20
Zalando $ZAL:
Q1 GMV growth guidance increased to 54.5-56.5% accelerating from +38% yoy in Q4 2020.
$NXT.LN Next (UK online retail):
Feb/Mar-21 online sales +60% yoy, accelerating from +31% yoy in H2’20
4. $FTCH launched its store on Tmall in China on 1 March.
5. $FTCH launched a global marketing campaign in April 2021 to retain/acquire customers.
Particular focus of the campaign has been in China. See billboards in the picture in Beijing
5. $FTCH launched a global marketing campaign in April 2021 to retain/acquire customers.
Particular focus of the campaign has been in China. See billboards in the picture in Beijing
See new advert launched last week on their Instagram (2.8m followers) and TikTok
6. Leading fashion trade journal WWD (Woman’s Wear Daily) published an article this morning highlighting $FTCH is in talks to acquire Violet Grey. VG is an online beauty platform selling c. 140 brands & would mark $FTCH first move into the beauty category https://wwd.com/business-news/mergers-acquisitions/farfetch-violet-grey-cassandra-luxury-beauty-e-commerce-1234808198/
7. Data suggest momentum still strong for the New Guards Group brands. For example Palm Angels is tracking at all time high on Google trends
8. Q1 Guidance:
Platform GMV growth: 50-55%
NGG Revenue growth: $95-105m
Contribution margin: 32-34%
Platform GMV growth: 50-55%
NGG Revenue growth: $95-105m
Contribution margin: 32-34%
9. Taking a look at Q1 Consensus
Consensus for platform GMV is above top end of guidance at 55.2% for Q1.
Consensus for platform GMV is above top end of guidance at 55.2% for Q1.
Q1 consensus contribution margin at the top end of guidance at 33.95%
Q1 consensus total revenue $460m or growth of 38.9%
Q1 consensus revenue estimate revisions have gone up since last earnings
Q1 Consensus Adj. Ebitda ($19.2). Post Q1 consensus expect $FTCH to turn a quarterly profit in all subsequent quarters
Given commentary from luxury players regarding continued online momentum, plus the strength of GMV growth in online pure plays,I anticipate this will be reflected in $FTCH Q1 numbers. I expect momentum to continue given strong brand heat of own brands & marketing drive in China
@WOLF_Financial @ParrotStock @InvestiAnalyst @MaxTheComrade @Crussian17 @BornInvestor @OphirGottlieb @Nick_HuynhMPLS @Ryan_Burgio @bluff_capital @caleb_investTML
This may be of interest to some of the $ftch bulls of new and old.
Any thoughts?
This may be of interest to some of the $ftch bulls of new and old.
Any thoughts?
