LA CD 2 ELECTION NIGHT THREAD

I will be posting here throughout the day, and more regularly once the polls close. First, let's talk about the district: it was designed to be a black majority district after a mid decade redistricting for 1984, but it didn't actually elect a black Congressman until 1990
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That Congressman was Bill Jefferson (who curiously represented the same Senate district numerically and generally geographically that Karen Carter Peterson does today in the LA Senate
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Peterson and another state senator (Troy Carter, who represents the Westbank/parts of three parishes across the Mississippi River) are the runoff contestants today
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This is a visual representation of the district. It is heavily Democratic (since 1996, Kerry's 72-27% margin was the WEAKEST performance for a Democrat), and supported Biden 76-23% and John Bel Edwards 84-16%. Even Bill Cassidy only got 25% here:
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While outsiders may see the district's 61% black voter registration as its being a 61% Democratic district, you have a sizeable white liberal population in nearly every white precinct in New Orleans/Orleans Parish.
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The rest of the district is more blue collar and dependent on the petrochemical industry, and voting is more along racial lines, although a generation ago, unions had some clout in areas from Harvey/Westwego in Jefferson Parish all the way up to Baton Rouge
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Now, let's pivot to the runoff. The primary results are important in terms of understanding the necessary coalitions to win. While Troy Carter led 36-23% over Karen Carter Peterson, Gary Chambers also received 21% of the vote (this vote ideologically aligned with Peterson)
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and four Republican candidates collectively got 16% of the vote (given runoff campaign messaging, that vote is more likely to go to Carter). The remaining 8 candidates got 4% of the vote.
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In the primary, Carter dominated the early vote (47-27% lead over Peterson and 11% for Chambers), while Chambers did well on Election Day (Election Day vote was 31% Carter, 26% Chambers, and 21% Peterson). I see a similar dynamic happening tonight
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In other words, Carter rolling up a large lead from the early vote (in Louisiana, in person and mail in voting are reported as one number per parish), while Peterson MUST do well with the Chambers vote for today's voting.
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While last night's weather was nasty (tornado warnings in Baton Rouge), it's currently sunny in BR and cloudy in NO
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Now let's talk about early voting, as since its enactment in LA after Katrina in 2005, it's steadily grown in popularity, to the point that 46% of the total 2020 vote was cast before Election Day - a record. The primary/runoff EV numbers are as follows:
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(1) March primary: 31258 EV, 69-28% black/white, 82-10% Dem/Rep, and 44% mail
(2) April runoff: 26670 EV, 71-26% black/white, 85-7% Dem/Rep, and 47% mail
(3) In person voting (compared to primary) was 20% lower, while was 9% lower
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And now, back from a commercial break :)

I've had several questions about the race and party split of early and Election Day voters. I now have data on this for all but today's voters - runoff EVing is as of last night
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RACE
Primary EV: 69-28% black/white
Primary Election Day ONLY: 58-37% black/white
Runoff EV: 71-26% black/white

Party
Primary EV: 82-10-8% Dem/Rep/Ind
Primary Election Day ONLY: 73-14-13% Dem/Rep/Ind
Runoff EV: 85-8-7% Dem/Rep/Ind
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AGE
Prim EV: 19-16-66% 18-54/55-64/65+ yo
Prim Elec Day ONLY: 46-25-29% 18-54/55-64/65+ yo
Runoff EV: 16-16-67% 18-54/55-64/65+ yo

Note: the Elec Day primary # (esp with it being 2/3 of the primary vote) was why it wasn't wise to call the race ONLY from the EV
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Polls close in exactly 3 hours. In about an hour, GOTV starts to wind down and candidates/operatives start pacing around HQ
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