Read on Twitter
1/14
A lot of trade influencers on Twitter suddenly seem to be calling for $38k-$43k.
Meanwhile most large traders have the same target that you see on the books. $45k-$47k has strong buys.
A lot of trade influencers on Twitter suddenly seem to be calling for $38k-$43k.
Meanwhile most large traders have the same target that you see on the books. $45k-$47k has strong buys.
2/14
Many accounts you follow either do none of their own research and just hop on to a pushed narrative, or, even worse, they actively push narratives lower than the target price
**because they want you to sell**
They want you to sell to them at a price near the bottom.
Many accounts you follow either do none of their own research and just hop on to a pushed narrative, or, even worse, they actively push narratives lower than the target price
**because they want you to sell**
They want you to sell to them at a price near the bottom.
3/14
Crypto markets have historically had draw downs of -28% - -39% during bull markets, and we usually brush the lows.
The more institutional money in the space, the shorter and smaller those draw downs get.
Crypto markets have historically had draw downs of -28% - -39% during bull markets, and we usually brush the lows.
The more institutional money in the space, the shorter and smaller those draw downs get.
4/14
But manipulators love to push that narrative onto retail trades as if that range is a target we must hit and so on low volume weekends you get trade inertia and liquidations that can really destroy small traders.
But manipulators love to push that narrative onto retail trades as if that range is a target we must hit and so on low volume weekends you get trade inertia and liquidations that can really destroy small traders.
5/14
During this time the big players just buy it all up and wait on the recovery.
But, near the end of a dip, you usually see the FUD ramp up even more as people try and squeeze just a few more coins out of retail.
During this time the big players just buy it all up and wait on the recovery.
But, near the end of a dip, you usually see the FUD ramp up even more as people try and squeeze just a few more coins out of retail.
6/14
Think about it.
The *worst* prediction we've seen is around $43k which down from the $64k high would be a 32% drop (well within the regular correction range)
But, we already dropped from $64k to $47k briefly. 26% down.
So in the worst case? The chaos is 80% over.
Think about it.
The *worst* prediction we've seen is around $43k which down from the $64k high would be a 32% drop (well within the regular correction range)
But, we already dropped from $64k to $47k briefly. 26% down.
So in the worst case? The chaos is 80% over.
7/14
If the worst case model is 80% over, then we can assume that in better case models we're >80% over.
Imagine a spinner where 80% of it was green and you win money.
20% of it was red, and you lose money but can regain it later by waiting.
Would you spin it?
If the worst case model is 80% over, then we can assume that in better case models we're >80% over.
Imagine a spinner where 80% of it was green and you win money.
20% of it was red, and you lose money but can regain it later by waiting.
Would you spin it?
8/14
Of course you would.
It's low downside, high upside.
But, markets prey on two things:
1) Greed. (Over invested/over leveraged)
2) Impatience. (Not waiting for things to recover)
Of course you would.
It's low downside, high upside.
But, markets prey on two things:
1) Greed. (Over invested/over leveraged)
2) Impatience. (Not waiting for things to recover)
9/14
And look, no one should tell you how to invest your money.
If you've made meaningful funds you don't want to lose, or are cutting off bad loses from previous bad decisions, that's fair - you need to make the informed decision that is right for you.
And look, no one should tell you how to invest your money.
If you've made meaningful funds you don't want to lose, or are cutting off bad loses from previous bad decisions, that's fair - you need to make the informed decision that is right for you.
10/14
But if you are basing your decisions off the fact that an anon guy with charts told you its all over, then just take a deep breath run some math and think through the potential scenarios.
But if you are basing your decisions off the fact that an anon guy with charts told you its all over, then just take a deep breath run some math and think through the potential scenarios.
11/14
And if you aren't an active or experienced trader, don't use leverage...
And if you aren't an active or experienced trader, don't use leverage...
12/14
Now none of this is to say that trader Twitter is bad. There are a lot of good trade analysts including anon traders that are telling you their trades.
And unlike the shills, actual traders don't randomly stop tweeting for a few days on down charts...
Now none of this is to say that trader Twitter is bad. There are a lot of good trade analysts including anon traders that are telling you their trades.
And unlike the shills, actual traders don't randomly stop tweeting for a few days on down charts...
13/14
The difference is, they know how to managing their risk better, and have recovery plans.
They are fine getting wiped out on huge positions because they are set up to expect that to happen.
The difference is, they know how to managing their risk better, and have recovery plans.
They are fine getting wiped out on huge positions because they are set up to expect that to happen.
14/14
The FUD in this market has really ramped up recently and that has unfairly targeted retail traders and protocol users.
Take a deep breath.
Buy projects with real fundamental value.
Don't over leverage.
The FUD in this market has really ramped up recently and that has unfairly targeted retail traders and protocol users.
Take a deep breath.
Buy projects with real fundamental value.
Don't over leverage.
PS - not financial advice.
Disclosure, if we do drop that low and you are deciding to sell, I am buying all the way down
Disclosure, if we do drop that low and you are deciding to sell, I am buying all the way down
