Finding the next Antonio Brown and Tyreek Hill:

A THREAD

In my last thread, I talked about Alpha WRs offering the most upside in fantasy. LETS RECAP:

-Alphas Eat First(credit @DFBeanCounter)
-Definition: 5'11+, 195+ ibs, 26+ BMI
-These WRs have the most upside

Why Do We Want Upside?

-The average Top 6 WR in 2020 scored 20.4 PPR PPG, Tyler Lockett(WR12) scored 16.6.
-This 3.8 point gap is equal to the distance between Lockett(WR12) and Boyd(WR37)
-You are gaining no edge from WRs12-36

Since 2013 there has been 14 WRs who have hit the 20 PPG Threshold:

Josh Gordon
Deandre Hopkins
Davante Adams
Julio Jones
Michael Thomas
Steffon Diggs
Calvin Johnson
OBJ
Demaryious Thomas
Jordy Nelson
Brandon Marshall
Keenan Allen
Tyreek Hill
Antonio Brown

12/14 of these WRs are Alphas...

BUT

WE CANT ONLY DRAFT ALPHAS, so what kind of betas are the right ones to draft/have the most upside?

I think Antonio Brown and Tyreek Hill(The only 2 betas on the list) can point us in that direction

They both are similar:
-Small
-Compact
-Dynamic In College**

THIS IS WHAT SET ALARMS OFF IN MY HEAD

First, What is being "Dynamic"

Thanks to @breakout_finder we have a metric and definition for this:

DYNAMIC SCORE – A composition of kick return, punt return and rushing yardage accrued during a prospect’s career. The higher the score, the more diverse and elusive the athlete.

SIDE NOTE:

My reasoning for incorporating dynamism is that these WRs that are smaller need some juice.

Players who are dynamic are dangerous with the ball in their hands, making them more efficient per touch. They also often take hand-offs. This combo offers more upside

Antonio Brown had a Top 12 Dynamic Score of all time at Western Michigan with a 87.4

Not too far behind was Tyreek Hill with 55.7

Wanted to know if this small, compact, dynamic archetype could lead us to any conclusions or if it was a coincidence

Now its time to research

Because only 2 betas have finished with 20 PPG since 2013, I broadened the parameters to any betas that have finished Top 12 in PPR Scoring at WR

A majority of the WRs had a "type"

TY Hilton, Randall Cobb, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks, Steve Smith

After messing around with this data for hours I finally came to the definition for what I will call "Dynamic Betas"

DEFINITION:
-Beta WR(fails to meet 5’11+, 195+ ibs, 26+ BMI)
-Dynamic Score: 10+
-5'9-5'11
-175+ ibs
-25+ BMI

NOTE: I know Dynamic Score of 10 feels like a low bar if Tyreek Hill and AB had 50+

Of the 99 betas I had data for drafted since 2013, 49 of them had a Dynamic Score below 10

*A higher dynamic score wasn't predictive of more fantasy points. We just want to hit the threshold

APPLYING THE DEFINITION

Of the 19 WRs with Top 12 seasons since 2009, 74% of them were Dynamic Betas

So clearly you want to shoot for these kinds of betas if you want to hit on a Top 12 WR season from a non-alpha WR

So we know Dynamic Betas are more likely to hit their ceiling than other betas, what about their floor?

-I took the 99 beta WRs in the @rotounderworld database drafted since 2013 and went to work

-Listed their size, dynamic scores, and PPG thru their 1st 2 seasons

NOTE: This is where I fine tuned the definition, I moved around weight, bmi, height and nothing created as much of a gap as the definition of 10+ Dynamic Score, 5’9-5’11, 175+, 25+ BMI.

DATA:

Dynamic Betas in their 1st 2 seasons in the NFL score on average 6.2 PPG

Static Betas(Beta WRs who dont fit the dynamic definition) only scored 4.67 on average

This is only a 1.53 PPG difference, but that means Dynamic Betas score 32% more than Static Betas thru 2 szns

DATA CONT':

Of the 99 betas researched, only 24% of the crop fit into the Dynamic Beta definition

Think about this, if Dynamic Betas represent 74% of the betas with Top 12 seasons, but only represent 24% of betas in total, there's a CLEAR advantage to be had

CONCLUSIONS:

Generally speaking, Dynamic Betas are safer assets with a better chance to hit a Top 12 season than static betas, Dynamic Betas should be the betas we are targeting

BONUS: 2021 DYNAMIC BETAS

Top 3 Dynamic Betas Per ADP:
Jaylen Waddle
Elijah Moore
Kadarius Toney

BONUS SLEEPER: Cade Johnson

DISCLAIMER:

Wouldn't go head over heels with this info but I will use the Dynamic Beta archetype as something that influences my rankings between betas in the same tier, but not enough to jump a dynamic beta into a new tier

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