Here is the ASEAN ‘Five Points of Consensus’. We will have to wait to see whether the Tatmadaw implements any of these broad commitments, and how ASEAN responds to any Tatmadaw delays or failures to meet them.

The chairman’s statement also approves a ministerial with Secretary Blinken, which the junta had been blocking since the coup; and the UK’s application for ‘dialogue partner’ status. Some ASEAN leaders were annoyed that Min Aung Hlaing had been preventing these engagements.

Statement from the head of the Assistance Association of Political Prisoners. https://twitter.com/kobokyi/status/1385936882161176580

Seeing some declare ASEAN summit either failure or victory. Don’t think either captures the situation. No doubt it falls far short of what is required, but it is an opening. Test will be implementation, and whether there are consequences for Tatmadaw failure to meet commitments.

Those consequences could include stronger language on freeing political prisoners and restoration of the status quo ante, i.e. democracy; and perhaps later a de facto suspension of Myanmar, citing disputes over the identity of the legitimate government.

This will all happen at an agonizingly slow pace, particularly for the people of Myanmar, if it happens at all. But it would be a mistake to dismiss an opening like this out of hand, given limited other options.

President Jokowi and Foreign Minister Retno deserve credit for pursuing a one-off summit despite considerable risk of outright collapse, raising the stakes in a way that most of the bloc and MAH found difficult to ignore. There was little domestic political benefit to doing so.

But for them too, the test will be implementation. Jokowi has been criticized in the past for failing to follow-up on high profile initiatives. This one cannot be cast aside, and ASEAN’s course on Myanmar will depend in large part on Indonesia’s continued attention to it.

I agree with you, Pak Rizal. (See full thread above). https://twitter.com/drrizalsukma/status/1386219283655454722