The Prime Minister is really proud of the "19%" reduction that has occurred since 2005 levels in the emissions data and the effort it demonstrates. He made a big deal of it on the world stage.

Let's open that claim up a little. (A thread in two parts.)

First, the specific claim:

The Prime Minister told the Climate Leaders' Summit:

"Already we have reduced our emissions by 19 per cent on 2019 on – 2005 levels I should say – more than most other similar economies and by 36% when you exclude exports."

19%. That feels like a lot. Let's official projections data.

Hrrm... Nearly, but not quite. Even with the pandemic (which I'll come back to) and an epic drought affecting agricultural sector stocking rates and so agricultural emissions, that's only 16.5% below 2005 levels.

19% didn't come from nowhere. It's not a mistake. The numbers are almost never make mistakes. I learned that this week when I wrote off the 36% figure as an error in the Business Council speech. The projections work on financial years so that only goes to June.

The quarterly emissions data comes out five months after the end of each quarter, so we have September quarter data now.

Sure enough, if you take the four quarters up to September 2020 and compare to the four quarters up to September 2005:

It's weird to use that number, because that's two and a bit quarters worth of COVID impact. Covid was mostly swings and roundabouts for Australia, with only modest reductions in most sectors, but it took an axe to transport emissions.

Check out the drop between 2019 and 2020!

People like @GrogsGamut have pointed out really weel that a lot of the emissions reduction that have been seen to date happened under the ALP, and that emissions reductions have levelled off under the LNP.

It's true. Red: ALP, Blue: LNP, Grey: Projected.

But this is a bit misleading, too. Because if you strip out land use change, which is something the federal Government has very minimal control over, then you get something like this.

(The bar drops below zero in years where land use is an overall sink)

Australia is definitely allowed to count land use emissions in its official estimates. The good people at @thejuicemedia covered this in their great Honest Government ad late last year: https://twitter.com/thejuicemedia/status/1337627855719559169?s=20

But as @adamlmorton pointed out in his fact check yesterday, a huge share of the drop in emissions from land use change, both after 1990 and after 2007 in the chart above occurred Queensland, as a result of tightening up land-clearing rules.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/23/australia-has-been-talking-up-its-climate-credentials-but-do-the-claims-stack-up

And if you strip land use change right out, you get something like this instead. It's not a lot to boast about from anyone, really.

This waterfall chart breaks down the emission reductions that have occurred between the 2005 calendar year, and the most recent 12-month period in the emissions data.

Imagine trying to boast about that.

I'll come back to this later.